#302USNASDAQ

TSCO

Tractor Supply

$29.64USD

Data as of 2026-07-21

Composite Score58.2Strong

−55

Margin of safety−55%Expensive

Fair value$19.10

Target$70.18

Loss chance58%Neutral

SizeLarge cap

SectorConsumer Discretionary

Dividend3.17%

TypeCommon stock

Price

Pillar breakdown

0–100 percentile rank against the current universe (sector-relative for Quality / Value / Growth / Profitability)

Consumer Discretionary median (n=196)

Quality
Profit margins & asset efficiency
89
Exceptional
Consumer Discretionary median (n=196) 48
Value
Price vs fundamentals
59
Strong
Consumer Discretionary median (n=196) 51
Growth
Revenue & earnings trajectory
52
Average
Consumer Discretionary median (n=196) 49
Momentum
Recent price strength
3
Poor
Consumer Discretionary median (n=196) 44
Health
Balance sheet & solvency
61
Strong
Consumer Discretionary median (n=196) 43
Profitability
ROE, ROA, ROIC
69
Strong
Consumer Discretionary median (n=196) 50
Technical
Trend & volatility signals
40
Average
Consumer Discretionary median (n=196) 47
Risk
Volatility & drawdown profile
32
Weak
Consumer Discretionary median (n=196) 39

025405570100

Exceptional (70+)Strong (55–70)Average (40–55)Weak (25–40)Poor (<25)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Risk Summary

1 active

Rank gates

Sloan accruals — top decile[sloan_accruals_top_decile]Within-sector top decile of accruals / assets (Sloan 1996).

These flags keep the raw composite rank (project Rule 16) but forfeit the entered_top5 badge. Two of them — altman_distress and data_quality_input_corruption — additionally force a cautious recommendation; the others act as Top-5 disqualifiers without dictating the buy/hold/sell label on their own.

Manipulation index

Moderate

25/100

Composite penalty: −2.50 pts (informational; rank uses raw composite)

Also fired — not rank-gating (1)

Accruals momentum (Δ TATA > 0.05 over 3y)[accruals_momentum_high]

Rolls up Phase 4.5 earnings-manipulation defenses (Sloan · Beneish · Dechow · REM · restatement · late-filing · earnings- quality time-series) into a single 0-100 risk index. The soft composite penalty (max 10 pts) is informational only — the ranking uses the raw composite score per project Rule 16.

Fair price check

6 different valuation methods each estimate what TSCOshould be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Looks overvalued

Models suggest TSCO is trading above fair value

Today's price

$29.64

Median fair price

$19.10

-36% vs today's price

Of 6 methods:2 say cheap4 say pricey

P/E multiplesUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $70.18, about 137% above today
EV/EBITDAUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $43.13, about 46% above today
Graham (defensive)Overvalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $20.72, about 30% below today
Residual IncomeOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $17.48, about 41% below today
P/B multiplesOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $14.63, about 51% below today
DCF (2-stage)Overvalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $14.53, about 51% below today

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair: $19.10
Margin of safety(vs fair value): -55.2%
Max (ex-outliers): $70.18
Tangible BVPS: $4.03

Accruals momentum

Median of all applicable methods (current price $29.64). Per-method estimates + each method’s cheap/fair/pricey read are in the Fair price check above. Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Defense layer. Flags mark elevated risk, never confirmed fraud. This model cannot catch every manipulation and decays after publication — weigh it against its stated error rates.

Supporting dataRaw fundamentals & data-quality provenance behind the scores above

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

Metric	Value
Market cap	$15.54B
Revenue (TTM)	$15.65B
Net income (TTM)	$1.95B
Operating cash flow (TTM)	$1.51B
CapEx (TTM)	$956.10M
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx	$553.50M
Total assets	$11.66B
Total liabilities	$9.15B
Stockholders' equity	$2.51B
Cash & equivalents	$224.27M
Shares outstanding	524.45M
EPS (basic)	$3.72
EPS (diluted)	$3.72
P/E ratio (TTM)	7.97

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date: 2026-05-07
Latest period end: 2026-04-25
Filing lag: 75 days
Missing metrics: 3(research_and_development, accounts_receivable, short_term_debt)