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#547USNASDAQ

STLD

Steel Dynamics

$233.52USD

Data as of 2026-07-21

Fair value$115.29
Target$188.38
Loss chance61%Moderate-high

Company attributes

SizeLarge cap
SectorMaterials
Dividend0.92%
TypeCommon stock

Price

Interactive 5-year price history chart for STLD. Latest close $233.52.

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Pillar breakdown

0–100 percentile rank against the current universe (sector-relative for Quality / Value / Growth / Profitability)

Materials median (n=78)
  • Quality
    Profit margins & asset efficiency
    65
    Strong
    Materials median (n=78) 52
  • Value
    Price vs fundamentals
    27
    Weak
    Materials median (n=78) 52
  • Growth
    Revenue & earnings trajectory
    27
    Weak
    Materials median (n=78) 45
  • Momentum
    Recent price strength
    74
    Exceptional
    Materials median (n=78) 47
  • Health
    Balance sheet & solvency
    77
    Exceptional
    Materials median (n=78) 53
  • Profitability
    ROE, ROA, ROIC
    55
    Strong
    Materials median (n=78) 53
  • Technical
    Trend & volatility signals
    64
    Strong
    Materials median (n=78) 47
  • Risk
    Volatility & drawdown profile
    72
    Exceptional
    Materials median (n=78) 46
025405570100
Exceptional (70+)Strong (55–70)Average (40–55)Weak (25–40)Poor (<25)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Risk Summary

Low
Manipulation index
3/100
Composite penalty: 0.30 pts (informational; rank uses raw composite)
Fired components (1)
  • Beneish M-score warning band[beneish_high]

Rolls up Phase 4.5 earnings-manipulation defenses (Sloan · Beneish · Dechow · REM · restatement · late-filing · earnings- quality time-series) into a single 0-100 risk index. The soft composite penalty (max 10 pts) is informational only — the ranking uses the raw composite score per project Rule 16.

Fair price check

6 different valuation methods each estimate what STLDshould be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Heavily overvalued
Models suggest STLD is far above estimated fair value
Today's price
$233.52
Median fair price
$115.29
-51% vs today's price
Of 6 methods:6 say pricey
  • P/E multiplesOvervalued
    thinks it's expensiveestimates $188.38, about 19% below today
  • EV/EBITDAOvervalued
    thinks it's expensiveestimates $168.50, about 28% below today
  • Graham (defensive)Overvalued
    thinks it's expensiveestimates $118.84, about 49% below today
  • DCF (2-stage)Overvalued
    thinks it's expensiveestimates $111.73, about 52% below today
  • P/B multiplesOvervalued
    thinks it's expensiveestimates $103.92, about 55% below today
  • Residual IncomeOvervalued
    thinks it's expensiveestimates $83.39, about 64% below today

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair
$115.29
Margin of safety(vs fair value)
< −99%
Max (ex-outliers)
$188.38
Tangible BVPS
$58.00
  • Beneish M-score (warning band)

Median of all applicable methods (current price $233.52). Per-method estimates + each method’s cheap/fair/pricey read are in the Fair price check above. Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Defense layer. Flags mark elevated risk, never confirmed fraud. This model cannot catch every manipulation and decays after publication — weigh it against its stated error rates.

Supporting dataRaw fundamentals & data-quality provenance behind the scores above

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

MetricValue
Market cap$33.68B
Revenue (TTM)$19.01B
Net income (TTM)$1.37B
Operating cash flow (TTM)$1.45B
CapEx (TTM)$780.50M
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx$664.75M
Total assets$16.72B
Total liabilities$7.59B
Stockholders' equity$9.16B
Cash & equivalents$556.53M
Shares outstanding144.21M
EPS (basic)$9.51
EPS (diluted)$9.51
P/E ratio (TTM)24.55

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date
2026-04-27
Latest period end
2026-04-22
Filing lag
85 days
Missing metrics
1(research_and_development)

Composite is the 8-pillar weighted score over quality, value, growth, momentum, health, profitability, technical, and risk. Sentiment + ML pillars are reserved for a later phase; until then their weight redistributes pro-rata. Fair price is the median of 6 valuation methods (Graham, P/E / P/B / EV-EBITDA multiples, RIM, DCF) with outliers above 5× current price excluded from the max. Risk-overlay flags annotate only — they suppress the entered-top-5 badge but do not modify the composite.