#403USNASDAQ

SMCI

Supermicro

$25.50USD

Data as of 2026-07-21

Composite Score56.0Strong

+58

Margin of safety+58%Cheap

Fair value$60.83

Target$86.48

Loss chance27%Moderate-low

SizeLarge cap

SectorInformation Technology

Dividend—

TypeCommon stock

Price

Pillar breakdown

0–100 percentile rank against the current universe (sector-relative for Quality / Value / Growth / Profitability)

Information Technology median (n=189)

Quality
Profit margins & asset efficiency
50
Average
Information Technology median (n=189) 50
Value
Price vs fundamentals
89
Exceptional
Information Technology median (n=189) 52
Growth
Revenue & earnings trajectory
56
Strong
Information Technology median (n=189) 51
Momentum
Recent price strength
27
Weak
Information Technology median (n=189) 66
Health
Balance sheet & solvency
79
Exceptional
Information Technology median (n=189) 65
Profitability
ROE, ROA, ROIC
33
Weak
Information Technology median (n=189) 49
Technical
Trend & volatility signals
30
Weak
Information Technology median (n=189) 47
Risk
Volatility & drawdown profile
10
Poor
Information Technology median (n=189) 40

025405570100

Exceptional (70+)Strong (55–70)Average (40–55)Weak (25–40)Poor (<25)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Recent regulatory events

Auditor change (8-K Item 4.01)AnnotateView filing

Latest 8-K: 2024-11-18

Risk Summary

3 active

Rank gates

Sloan accruals — top decile[sloan_accruals_top_decile]Within-sector top decile of accruals / assets (Sloan 1996).
Beneish M-score veto[beneish_manipulation_veto]Beneish M-score above −1.78 — earnings manipulation likely (Beneish 1999).
Dechow F-score veto[dechow_manipulation_veto]Dechow F-score above 3.0 — elevated misstatement risk (Dechow et al. 2011).

These flags keep the raw composite rank (project Rule 16) but forfeit the entered_top5 badge. Two of them — altman_distress and data_quality_input_corruption — additionally force a cautious recommendation; the others act as Top-5 disqualifiers without dictating the buy/hold/sell label on their own.

Manipulation index

High

84/100

Composite penalty: −8.40 pts (informational; rank uses raw composite)

Also fired — not rank-gating (4)

Triple-stack (Sloan + Beneish + Dechow)[manipulation_triple_flag]
Real Earnings Management (Roychowdhury 2006)[rem_suspect]
Beneish M-score warning band[beneish_high]
Dechow F-score warning band[dechow_high]

Rolls up Phase 4.5 earnings-manipulation defenses (Sloan · Beneish · Dechow · REM · restatement · late-filing · earnings- quality time-series) into a single 0-100 risk index. The soft composite penalty (max 10 pts) is informational only — the ranking uses the raw composite score per project Rule 16.

Fair price check

6 different valuation methods each estimate what SMCIshould be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Looks undervalued

Models suggest SMCI is trading below fair value

Today's price

$25.50

Median fair price

$60.83

+139% vs today's price

Of 5 methods:3 say cheap2 say pricey(1 outlier excluded)

P/E multiplesUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $86.48, about 239% above today
EV/EBITDAUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $83.98, about 229% above today
Graham (defensive)Undervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $37.68, about 48% above today
Residual IncomeOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $21.44, about 16% below today
DCF (2-stage)Overvalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $15.34, about 40% below today
P/B multiplesOutlier
estimate looks unreliable — estimates $230.87 — likely unreliable

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair: $60.83
Margin of safety(vs fair value): +58.1%
Max (ex-outliers): $86.48
Tangible BVPS: $12.60

Extreme P/B estimate
Beneish M-score (warning band)
Dechow F-score (warning band)
Triple-stack (Sloan + Beneish + Dechow)
Cross-source price disagreement
Real Earnings Management

Median of all applicable methods (current price $25.50). Per-method estimates + each method’s cheap/fair/pricey read are in the Fair price check above. Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Defense layer. Flags mark elevated risk, never confirmed fraud. This model cannot catch every manipulation and decays after publication — weigh it against its stated error rates.

Supporting dataRaw fundamentals & data-quality provenance behind the scores above

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

Metric	Value
Market cap	$15.34B
Revenue (TTM)	$33.70B
Net income (TTM)	$1.29B
Operating cash flow (TTM)	$981.76M
CapEx (TTM)	$156.45M
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx	$825.31M
Total assets	$23.45B
Total liabilities	$15.88B
Stockholders' equity	$7.58B
Cash & equivalents	$1.29B
Shares outstanding	601.42M
EPS (basic)	$2.14
EPS (diluted)	$2.14
P/E ratio (TTM)	11.90

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date: 2026-05-11
Latest period end: 2026-04-30
Filing lag: 71 days
Missing metrics: 3(dividends_paid, goodwill, intangibles_net)

Composite is the 8-pillar weighted score over quality, value, growth, momentum, health, profitability, technical, and risk. Sentiment + ML pillars are reserved for a later phase; until then their weight redistributes pro-rata. Fair price is the median of 6 valuation methods (Graham, P/E / P/B / EV-EBITDA multiples, RIM, DCF) with outliers above 5× current price excluded from the max. Risk-overlay flags annotate only — they suppress the entered-top-5 badge but do not modify the composite.