#363USNASDAQ

SMCI

Supermicro

$37.87USD

Data as of 2026-09-05

Composite Score57.0Strong

+65

Margin of safety+65%Cheap

Fair value$108.77

Target$122.53

Loss chance27%Moderate-low

SizeLarge cap

SectorInformation Technology

Dividend—

TypeCommon stock

Price

Pillar breakdown

0–100 percentile rank against the current universe (sector-relative for Quality / Value / Growth / Profitability)

Information Technology median (n=190)

Quality
Profit margins & asset efficiency
49
Average
Information Technology median (n=190) 49
Value
Price vs fundamentals
88
Exceptional
Information Technology median (n=190) 51
Growth
Revenue & earnings trajectory
55
Strong
Information Technology median (n=190) 51
Momentum
Recent price strength
13
Poor
Information Technology median (n=190) 51
Health
Balance sheet & solvency
89
Exceptional
Information Technology median (n=190) 65
Profitability
ROE, ROA, ROIC
38
Weak
Information Technology median (n=190) 50
Technical
Trend & volatility signals
62
Strong
Information Technology median (n=190) 50
Risk
Volatility & drawdown profile
21
Poor
Information Technology median (n=190) 41

025405570100

Exceptional (70+)Strong (55–70)Average (40–55)Weak (25–40)Poor (<25)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Recent regulatory events

Auditor change (8-K Item 4.01)AnnotateView filing

Latest 8-K: 2024-11-18

Risk Summary

4 active

Rank gates

Sloan accruals — top decile[sloan_accruals_top_decile]Within-sector top decile of accruals / assets (Sloan 1996).
Net share issuance — top decile[net_issuance_top_decile]Top-decile net issuance over the trailing year (Pontiff-Woodgate 2008 / Daniel-Titman 2006).
Beneish M-score veto[beneish_manipulation_veto]Beneish M-score above −1.78 — earnings manipulation likely (Beneish 1999).
Dechow F-score veto[dechow_manipulation_veto]Dechow F-score above 3.0 — elevated misstatement risk (Dechow et al. 2011).

These flags keep the raw composite rank (project Rule 16) but forfeit the entered_top5 badge. Two of them — altman_distress and data_quality_input_corruption — additionally force a cautious recommendation; the others act as Top-5 disqualifiers without dictating the buy/hold/sell label on their own.

Manipulation index

High

89/100

Composite penalty: −8.90 pts (informational; rank uses raw composite)

Also fired — not rank-gating (5)

Triple-stack (Sloan + Beneish + Dechow)[manipulation_triple_flag]
Real Earnings Management (Roychowdhury 2006)[rem_suspect]
Accruals momentum (Δ TATA > 0.05 over 3y)[accruals_momentum_high]
Beneish M-score warning band[beneish_high]
Dechow F-score warning band[dechow_high]

Rolls up Phase 4.5 earnings-manipulation defenses (Sloan · Beneish · Dechow · REM · restatement · late-filing · earnings- quality time-series) into a single 0-100 risk index. The soft composite penalty (max 10 pts) is informational only — the ranking uses the raw composite score per project Rule 16.

Fair price check

5 different valuation methods each estimate what SMCI should be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Looks undervalued

Models suggest SMCI is trading below fair value

Today's price

$37.87

Median fair price

$108.77

+187% vs today's price

Of 4 methods:2 say cheap2 say pricey(1 outlier excluded)

EV/EBITDAUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $122.53, about 224% above today
P/E multiplesUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $108.77, about 187% above today
Graham (defensive)Overvalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $33.67, about 11% below today
Residual IncomeOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $29.64, about 22% below today
P/B multiplesOutlier
estimate looks unreliable — estimates $431.84 — likely unreliable

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair: $108.77
Margin of safety(vs fair value): +65.2%
Max (ex-outliers): $122.53
Tangible BVPS: $22.04

Extreme P/B estimate
Beneish M-score (warning band)
Dechow F-score (warning band)
Triple-stack (Sloan + Beneish + Dechow)
Real Earnings Management
Accruals momentum

Median of all applicable methods (current price $37.87). Per-method estimates + each method’s cheap/fair/pricey read are in the Fair price check above. Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Defense layer. Flags mark elevated risk, never confirmed fraud. This model cannot catch every manipulation and decays after publication — weigh it against its stated error rates.

Supporting dataRaw fundamentals & data-quality provenance behind the scores above

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

Metric	Value
Market cap	$24.88B
Revenue (TTM)	$39.06B
Net income (TTM)	$2.29B
Operating cash flow (TTM)	$-6.81B
CapEx (TTM)	$162.00M
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx	$-6.97B
Total assets	$29.95B
Total liabilities	$15.47B
Stockholders' equity	$14.48B
Cash & equivalents	$7.52B
Shares outstanding	656.97M
EPS (basic)	$3.49
EPS (diluted)	$3.49
P/E ratio (TTM)	10.86

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date: 2026-08-31
Latest period end: 2026-07-31
Filing lag: 5 days
Missing metrics: 3(dividends_paid, goodwill, intangibles_net)

Composite is the 8-pillar weighted score over quality, value, growth, momentum, health, profitability, technical, and risk. Sentiment + ML pillars are reserved for a later phase; until then their weight redistributes pro-rata. Fair price is the median of 6 valuation methods (Graham, P/E / P/B / EV-EBITDA multiples, RIM, DCF) with outliers above 5× current price excluded from the max. Risk-overlay flags annotate only — they suppress the entered-top-5 badge but do not modify the composite.