QuantRank
Back to ranking
#16USNYSE

PARR

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.

$80.40USD

Data as of 2026-07-21

Fair value$84.85
Target$121.12
Loss chance32%Moderate-low

Company attributes

SizeMid cap
SectorEnergy
Dividend—
TypeCommon stock

Price

Interactive 5-year price history chart for PARR. Latest close $80.40.

Loading price history…

Pillar breakdown

0–100 percentile rank against the current universe (sector-relative for Quality / Value / Growth / Profitability)

Energy median (n=69)
  • Quality
    Profit margins & asset efficiency
    84
    Exceptional
    Energy median (n=69) 51
  • Value
    Price vs fundamentals
    71
    Exceptional
    Energy median (n=69) 50
  • Growth
    Revenue & earnings trajectory
    59
    Strong
    Energy median (n=69) 51
  • Momentum
    Recent price strength
    69
    Strong
    Energy median (n=69) 56
  • Health
    Balance sheet & solvency
    50
    Average
    Energy median (n=69) 39
  • Profitability
    ROE, ROA, ROIC
    67
    Strong
    Energy median (n=69) 54
  • Technical
    Trend & volatility signals
    73
    Exceptional
    Energy median (n=69) 59
  • Risk
    Volatility & drawdown profile
    64
    Strong
    Energy median (n=69) 58
025405570100
Exceptional (70+)Strong (55–70)Average (40–55)Weak (25–40)Poor (<25)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Risk Summary

1 active
Rank gates
  • Sloan accruals — top decile[sloan_accruals_top_decile]Within-sector top decile of accruals / assets (Sloan 1996).

These flags keep the raw composite rank (project Rule 16) but forfeit the entered_top5 badge. Two of them — altman_distress and data_quality_input_corruption — additionally force a cautious recommendation; the others act as Top-5 disqualifiers without dictating the buy/hold/sell label on their own.

Manipulation index
Moderate
25/100
Composite penalty: −2.50 pts (informational; rank uses raw composite)
Also fired — not rank-gating (1)
  • Accruals momentum (Δ TATA > 0.05 over 3y)[accruals_momentum_high]

Rolls up Phase 4.5 earnings-manipulation defenses (Sloan · Beneish · Dechow · REM · restatement · late-filing · earnings- quality time-series) into a single 0-100 risk index. The soft composite penalty (max 10 pts) is informational only — the ranking uses the raw composite score per project Rule 16.

Fair price check

6 different valuation methods each estimate what PARRshould be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Near fair value
Models suggest PARR is priced roughly in line
Today's price
$80.40
Median fair price
$84.85
+6% vs today's price
Of 5 methods:1 say cheap2 say fair2 say pricey(1 outlier excluded)
  • EV/EBITDAUndervalued
    thinks it's a bargain — estimates $121.12, about 51% above today
  • DCF (2-stage)Fair
    thinks it's fairly priced — estimates $87.45, about 9% above today
  • P/B multiplesFair
    thinks it's fairly priced — estimates $82.25, about 2% above today
  • Graham (defensive)Overvalued
    thinks it's expensive — estimates $61.78, about 23% below today
  • Residual IncomeOvervalued
    thinks it's expensive — estimates $48.38, about 40% below today
  • P/E multiplesOutlier
    estimate looks unreliable — estimates $493.77 — likely unreliable

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair
$84.85
Margin of safety(vs fair value)
+5.2%
Max (ex-outliers)
$121.12
Tangible BVPS
$27.50
  • Extreme P/E estimate
  • Accruals momentum

Median of all applicable methods (current price $80.40). Per-method estimates + each method’s cheap/fair/pricey read are in the Fair price check above. Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Defense layer. Flags mark elevated risk, never confirmed fraud. This model cannot catch every manipulation and decays after publication — weigh it against its stated error rates.

Supporting dataRaw fundamentals & data-quality provenance behind the scores above

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

MetricValue
Market cap$4.03B
Revenue (TTM)$7.54B
Net income (TTM)$1.27B
Operating cash flow (TTM)$406.03M
CapEx (TTM)$151.01M
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx$255.02M
Total assets$4.21B
Total liabilities$2.66B
Stockholders' equity$1.52B
Cash & equivalents$172.17M
Shares outstanding50.14M
EPS (basic)$25.26
EPS (diluted)$25.26
P/E ratio (TTM)3.18

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date
2026-05-06
Latest period end
2026-04-30
Filing lag
76 days
Missing metrics
4(gross_profit, cost_of_revenue, research_and_development, dividends_paid)

Composite is the 8-pillar weighted score over quality, value, growth, momentum, health, profitability, technical, and risk. Sentiment + ML pillars are reserved for a later phase; until then their weight redistributes pro-rata. Fair price is the median of 6 valuation methods (Graham, P/E / P/B / EV-EBITDA multiples, RIM, DCF) with outliers above 5× current price excluded from the max. Risk-overlay flags annotate only — they suppress the entered-top-5 badge but do not modify the composite.