#1277USNASDAQ

ORLY

O’Reilly Automotive

$87.97USD

Data as of 2026-07-21

Composite Score40.2Average

≤−99

Margin of safety−118%Expensive

Fair value$40.34

Target$62.37

Loss chance65%Moderate-high

SizeLarge cap

SectorConsumer Discretionary

Dividend—

TypeCommon stock

Price

Pillar breakdown

0–100 percentile rank against the current universe (sector-relative for Quality / Value / Growth / Profitability)

Consumer Discretionary median (n=196)

Quality
Profit margins & asset efficiency
47
Average
Consumer Discretionary median (n=196) 48
Value
Price vs fundamentals
22
Poor
Consumer Discretionary median (n=196) 51
Growth
Revenue & earnings trajectory
34
Weak
Consumer Discretionary median (n=196) 49
Momentum
Recent price strength
27
Weak
Consumer Discretionary median (n=196) 44
Health
Balance sheet & solvency
46
Average
Consumer Discretionary median (n=196) 43
Profitability
ROE, ROA, ROIC
81
Exceptional
Consumer Discretionary median (n=196) 50
Technical
Trend & volatility signals
54
Average
Consumer Discretionary median (n=196) 47
Risk
Volatility & drawdown profile
62
Strong
Consumer Discretionary median (n=196) 39

025405570100

Exceptional (70+)Strong (55–70)Average (40–55)Weak (25–40)Poor (<25)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Risk Summary

Low

Manipulation index

5/100

Composite penalty: −0.50 pts (informational; rank uses raw composite)

Fired components (1)

Accruals momentum (Δ TATA > 0.05 over 3y)[accruals_momentum_high]

Rolls up Phase 4.5 earnings-manipulation defenses (Sloan · Beneish · Dechow · REM · restatement · late-filing · earnings- quality time-series) into a single 0-100 risk index. The soft composite penalty (max 10 pts) is informational only — the ranking uses the raw composite score per project Rule 16.

Fair price check

3 different valuation methods each estimate what ORLYshould be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Heavily overvalued

Models suggest ORLY is far above estimated fair value

Today's price

$87.97

Median fair price

$40.34

-54% vs today's price

Of 3 methods:3 say pricey

P/E multiplesOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $62.37, about 29% below today
EV/EBITDAOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $40.34, about 54% below today
DCF (2-stage)Overvalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $26.60, about 70% below today

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair: $40.34
Margin of safety(vs fair value): < −99%
Max (ex-outliers): $62.37
Tangible BVPS: —

Accruals momentum

Median of all applicable methods (current price $87.97). Per-method estimates + each method’s cheap/fair/pricey read are in the Fair price check above. Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Defense layer. Flags mark elevated risk, never confirmed fraud. This model cannot catch every manipulation and decays after publication — weigh it against its stated error rates.

Supporting dataRaw fundamentals & data-quality provenance behind the scores above

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

Metric	Value
Market cap	$72.90B
Revenue (TTM)	$18.21B
Net income (TTM)	$2.60B
Operating cash flow (TTM)	$3.04B
CapEx (TTM)	$1.13B
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx	$1.91B
Total assets	$16.94B
Total liabilities	N/A
Stockholders' equity	$-1.07B
Cash & equivalents	$252.63M
Shares outstanding	828.72M
EPS (basic)	$3.14
EPS (diluted)	$3.14
P/E ratio (TTM)	28.00

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date: 2026-05-08
Latest period end: 2026-05-04
Filing lag: 74 days
Missing metrics: 3(total_liabilities, research_and_development, dividends_paid)