#1238USNASDAQ

ORLY

O'Reilly Automotive

$86.65USD

Data as of 2026-10-14

Composite Score40.9Average

≤−99

Margin of safety−218%Expensive

Fair value$27.26

Target$50.18

Loss chance65%Moderate-high

SizeLarge cap

SectorConsumer Discretionary

DividendNone

TypeCommon stock

Price

Pillar breakdown

0–100 percentile rank against the current universe (sector-relative for Quality / Value / Growth / Profitability)

Consumer Discretionary median (n=193)

Quality
Profit margins & asset efficiency
46
Average
Consumer Discretionary median (n=193) 47
Value
Price vs fundamentals
20
Poor
Consumer Discretionary median (n=193) 51
Growth
Revenue & earnings trajectory
33
Weak
Consumer Discretionary median (n=193) 49
Momentum
Recent price strength
35
Weak
Consumer Discretionary median (n=193) 37
Health
Balance sheet & solvency
46
Average
Consumer Discretionary median (n=193) 44
Profitability
ROE, ROA, ROIC
80
Exceptional
Consumer Discretionary median (n=193) 51
Technical
Trend & volatility signals
67
Strong
Consumer Discretionary median (n=193) 48
Risk
Volatility & drawdown profile
59
Strong
Consumer Discretionary median (n=193) 38

025405570100

Exceptional (70+)Strong (55–70)Average (40–55)Weak (25–40)Poor (<25)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Fair price check

3 different valuation methods each estimate what ORLY should be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Heavily overvalued

Models suggest ORLY is far above estimated fair value

Today's price

$86.65

Median fair price

$27.26

-69% vs today's price

Of 3 methods:3 say pricey

P/E multiplesOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $50.18, about 42% below today
DCF (2-stage)Overvalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $27.26, about 69% below today
EV/EBITDAOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $25.41, about 71% below today

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair: $27.26
Margin of safety(vs fair value): < −99%
Max (ex-outliers): $50.18
Tangible BVPS: —

Median of all applicable methods (current price $86.65). Per-method estimates + each method’s cheap/fair/pricey read are in the Fair price check above. Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Defense layer. Flags mark elevated risk, never confirmed fraud. This model cannot catch every manipulation and decays after publication — weigh it against its stated error rates.

Supporting dataRaw fundamentals & data-quality provenance behind the scores above

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

Metric	Value
Market cap	$70.10B
Revenue (TTM)	$18.57B
Net income (TTM)	$2.65B
Operating cash flow (TTM)	$3.29B
CapEx (TTM)	$1.13B
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx	$2.16B
Total assets	$17.39B
Total liabilities	N/A
Stockholders' equity	$-1.84B
Cash & equivalents	$262.18M
Shares outstanding	808.96M
EPS (basic)	$3.28
EPS (diluted)	$3.28
P/E ratio (TTM)	26.45

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date: 2026-08-07
Latest period end: 2026-08-03
Filing lag: 68 days
Missing metrics: 3(total_liabilities, research_and_development, dividends_paid)