#9USNASDAQ

NVDA

Nvidia

$207.29USD

Data as of 2026-07-21

Composite Score71.5Exceptional

≤−99

Margin of safety−167%Expensive

Fair value$77.59

Target$325.80

Loss chance56%Neutral

SizeMega cap

SectorInformation Technology

Dividend0.49%

TypeCommon stock

Price

Pillar breakdown

0–100 percentile rank against the current universe (sector-relative for Quality / Value / Growth / Profitability)

Information Technology median (n=189)

Quality
Profit margins & asset efficiency
94
Exceptional
Information Technology median (n=189) 50
Value
Price vs fundamentals
35
Weak
Information Technology median (n=189) 52
Growth
Revenue & earnings trajectory
85
Exceptional
Information Technology median (n=189) 51
Momentum
Recent price strength
61
Strong
Information Technology median (n=189) 66
Health
Balance sheet & solvency
93
Exceptional
Information Technology median (n=189) 65
Profitability
ROE, ROA, ROIC
92
Exceptional
Information Technology median (n=189) 49
Technical
Trend & volatility signals
54
Average
Information Technology median (n=189) 47
Risk
Volatility & drawdown profile
47
Average
Information Technology median (n=189) 40

025405570100

Exceptional (70+)Strong (55–70)Average (40–55)Weak (25–40)Poor (<25)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Risk Summary

2 active

Rank gates

Sloan accruals — top decile[sloan_accruals_top_decile]Within-sector top decile of accruals / assets (Sloan 1996).
Beneish M-score veto[beneish_manipulation_veto]Beneish M-score above −1.78 — earnings manipulation likely (Beneish 1999).

These flags keep the raw composite rank (project Rule 16) but forfeit the entered_top5 badge. Two of them — altman_distress and data_quality_input_corruption — additionally force a cautious recommendation; the others act as Top-5 disqualifiers without dictating the buy/hold/sell label on their own.

Manipulation index

Moderate

48/100

Composite penalty: −4.80 pts (informational; rank uses raw composite)

Also fired — not rank-gating (2)

Accruals momentum (Δ TATA > 0.05 over 3y)[accruals_momentum_high]
Beneish M-score warning band[beneish_high]

Rolls up Phase 4.5 earnings-manipulation defenses (Sloan · Beneish · Dechow · REM · restatement · late-filing · earnings- quality time-series) into a single 0-100 risk index. The soft composite penalty (max 10 pts) is informational only — the ranking uses the raw composite score per project Rule 16.

Fair price check

5 different valuation methods each estimate what NVDAshould be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Heavily overvalued

Models suggest NVDA is far above estimated fair value

Today's price

$207.29

Median fair price

$77.59

-63% vs today's price

Of 4 methods:1 say cheap3 say pricey(1 outlier excluded)

P/E multiplesUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $325.80, about 57% above today
EV/EBITDAOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $181.45, about 12% below today
Residual IncomeOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $77.59, about 63% below today
P/B multiplesOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $54.77, about 74% below today
Graham (defensive)Outlier
estimate looks unreliable — estimates $32.41 — likely unreliable

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair: $77.59
Margin of safety(vs fair value): < −99%
Max (ex-outliers): $325.80
Tangible BVPS: $7.09

Extreme Graham estimate
Beneish M-score (warning band)
Accruals momentum

Median of all applicable methods (current price $207.29). Per-method estimates + each method’s cheap/fair/pricey read are in the Fair price check above. Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Defense layer. Flags mark elevated risk, never confirmed fraud. This model cannot catch every manipulation and decays after publication — weigh it against its stated error rates.

Supporting dataRaw fundamentals & data-quality provenance behind the scores above

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

Metric	Value
Market cap	$5.02T
Revenue (TTM)	$253.49B
Net income (TTM)	$159.61B
Operating cash flow (TTM)	$125.65B
CapEx (TTM)	$588.00M
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx	$125.06B
Total assets	$259.47B
Total liabilities	$64.00B
Stockholders' equity	$195.47B
Cash & equivalents	$13.24B
Shares outstanding	24.20B
EPS (basic)	$6.60
EPS (diluted)	$6.60
P/E ratio (TTM)	31.43

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date: 2026-05-20
Latest period end: 2026-05-15
Filing lag: 62 days
Missing metrics: none