#3Information Technology· Semiconductors

NVDASell

Nvidia

$225.32USD

Composite Score70.8Strong

<−99

Margin of safety<−99%Expensive

Fair value$62.79

Target$253.65

Loss chance57%

Price (1y)

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Fair price check

5 different valuation methods each estimate what NVDA should be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Heavily overvalued

Models suggest NVDA is far above estimated fair value

Today's price

$225.32

Median fair price

$62.79

-72% vs today

Of 4 methods:1 say fair3 say pricey(1 outlier excluded)

P/E multiplesFair
thinks it's fairly priced — estimates $253.65, about 13% above today
EV/EBITDAOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $184.64, about 18% below today
Residual IncomeOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $62.79, about 72% below today
P/B multiplesOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $50.11, about 78% below today
Graham (defensive)Outlier
estimate looks unreliable — estimates $28.50 — likely unreliable

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair

$62.79

Margin of safety

< −99%

Max (ex-outliers)

$253.65

Tangible BVPS

$5.48

Method	Value
Graham (defensive)	$28.50
P/E multiples(vs sub industry peers)	$253.65
P/B multiples(vs sub industry peers)	$50.11
EV/EBITDA(vs sub industry peers)	$184.64
Residual Income	$62.79
DCF (2-stage)	skipped

extreme graham estimate
beneish high

Median of all applicable methods (current price $225.32). Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Pillar breakdown

8 dimensions, each scored 0–100 against the universe

Information Technology median (n=73)

Quality
Profit margins & asset efficiency
91
Strong
Value
Price vs fundamentals
24
Poor
Growth
Revenue & earnings trajectory
84
Strong
Momentum
Recent price strength
75
Strong
Health
Balance sheet & solvency
96
Strong
Profitability
ROE, ROA, ROIC
92
Strong
Technical
Trend & volatility signals
66
Decent
Risk
Volatility & drawdown profile
53
Decent

0305070100

Strong (70+)Decent (50–70)Weak (30–50)Poor (<30)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

Metric	Value
Market cap	$5.48T
Revenue (TTM)	$215.94B
Net income (TTM)	$120.07B
Operating cash flow (TTM)	$102.72B
CapEx (TTM)	$588.00M
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx	$102.13B
Total assets	$206.80B
Total liabilities	$49.51B
Stockholders' equity	$157.29B
Cash & equivalents	$10.61B
Shares outstanding	24.30B
EPS (basic)	$4.93
EPS (diluted)	$4.90
P/E ratio (TTM)	45.60

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date: 2026-02-25
Latest period end: 2026-02-20
Filing lag: 80 days
Missing metrics: none

Phase 3c — composite is the 8-pillar weighted score over quality, value, growth, momentum, health, profitability, technical, and risk. Sentiment + ML pillars land in Phases 5-6; until then their weight redistributes pro-rata. Fair price is the median of 6 valuation methods (Graham, P/E / P/B / EV-EBITDA multiples, RIM, DCF) with outliers above 5× current price excluded from the max. Risk-overlay flags annotate only — they suppress the entered-top-5 badge but do not modify the composite.