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#1500USNYSE

NRG

NRG Energy

$131.60USD

Data as of 2026-07-21

Fair value$22.73
Target$46.65
Loss chance89%High

Company attributes

SizeLarge cap
SectorUtilities
Dividend1.46%
TypeCommon stock

Price

Interactive 5-year price history chart for NRG. Latest close $131.60.

Loading price history…

Pillar breakdown

0–100 percentile rank against the current universe (sector-relative for Quality / Value / Growth / Profitability)

Utilities median (n=59)
  • Quality
    Profit margins & asset efficiency
    30
    Weak
    Utilities median (n=59) 52
  • Value
    Price vs fundamentals
    26
    Weak
    Utilities median (n=59) 47
  • Growth
    Revenue & earnings trajectory
    36
    Weak
    Utilities median (n=59) 51
  • Momentum
    Recent price strength
    22
    Poor
    Utilities median (n=59) 53
  • Health
    Balance sheet & solvency
    9
    Poor
    Utilities median (n=59) 16
  • Profitability
    ROE, ROA, ROIC
    36
    Weak
    Utilities median (n=59) 51
  • Technical
    Trend & volatility signals
    19
    Poor
    Utilities median (n=59) 51
  • Risk
    Volatility & drawdown profile
    44
    Average
    Utilities median (n=59) 73
025405570100
Exceptional (70+)Strong (55–70)Average (40–55)Weak (25–40)Poor (<25)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Risk Summary

2 active
Rank gates
  • Altman financial distress[altman_distress]Altman Z″ below 1.10 — financial-distress zone (Altman 1968).
  • Net share issuance — top decile[net_issuance_top_decile]Top-decile net issuance over the trailing year (Pontiff-Woodgate 2008 / Daniel-Titman 2006).

These flags keep the raw composite rank (project Rule 16) but forfeit the entered_top5 badge. Two of them — altman_distress and data_quality_input_corruption — additionally force a cautious recommendation; the others act as Top-5 disqualifiers without dictating the buy/hold/sell label on their own.

Fair price check

3 different valuation methods each estimate what NRGshould be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Heavily overvalued
Models suggest NRG is far above estimated fair value
Today's price
$131.60
Median fair price
$22.73
-83% vs today's price
Of 1 methods:1 say pricey(2 outliers excluded)
  • P/B multiplesOvervalued
    thinks it's expensiveestimates $46.65, about 65% below today
  • P/E multiplesOutlier
    estimate looks unreliableestimates $22.73 — likely unreliable
  • EV/EBITDAOutlier
    estimate looks unreliableestimates $20.96 — likely unreliable

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair
$22.73
Margin of safety(vs fair value)
< −99%
Max (ex-outliers)
$46.65
Tangible BVPS
  • Extreme P/E estimate
  • Extreme EV/EBITDA estimate
  • Majority of methods extreme

Median of all applicable methods (current price $131.60). Per-method estimates + each method’s cheap/fair/pricey read are in the Fair price check above. Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Defense layer. Flags mark elevated risk, never confirmed fraud. This model cannot catch every manipulation and decays after publication — weigh it against its stated error rates.

Supporting dataRaw fundamentals & data-quality provenance behind the scores above

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

MetricValue
Market cap$27.77B
Revenue (TTM)$32.38B
Net income (TTM)$239.00M
Operating cash flow (TTM)$889.00M
CapEx (TTM)$1.25B
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx$-358.00M
Total assets$40.05B
Total liabilities$35.18B
Stockholders' equity$4.87B
Cash & equivalents$178.00M
Shares outstanding210.99M
EPS (basic)$1.13
EPS (diluted)$1.13
P/E ratio (TTM)116.17

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date
2026-05-06
Latest period end
2026-04-30
Filing lag
76 days
Missing metrics
3(gross_profit, cost_of_revenue, research_and_development)

Composite is the 8-pillar weighted score over quality, value, growth, momentum, health, profitability, technical, and risk. Sentiment + ML pillars are reserved for a later phase; until then their weight redistributes pro-rata. Fair price is the median of 6 valuation methods (Graham, P/E / P/B / EV-EBITDA multiples, RIM, DCF) with outliers above 5× current price excluded from the max. Risk-overlay flags annotate only — they suppress the entered-top-5 badge but do not modify the composite.