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#526USNASDAQ

NFLX

Netflix

$68.67USD

Data as of 2026-07-21

Fair value$29.39
Target$183.86
Loss chance61%Moderate-high

Company attributes

SizeMega cap
SectorCommunication Services
Dividend
TypeCommon stock

Price

Interactive 5-year price history chart for NFLX. Latest close $68.67.

Loading price history…

Pillar breakdown

0–100 percentile rank against the current universe (sector-relative for Quality / Value / Growth / Profitability)

Communication Services median (n=49)
  • Quality
    Profit margins & asset efficiency
    88
    Exceptional
    Communication Services median (n=49) 51
  • Value
    Price vs fundamentals
    27
    Weak
    Communication Services median (n=49) 52
  • Growth
    Revenue & earnings trajectory
    70
    Exceptional
    Communication Services median (n=49) 51
  • Momentum
    Recent price strength
    12
    Poor
    Communication Services median (n=49) 37
  • Health
    Balance sheet & solvency
    57
    Strong
    Communication Services median (n=49) 38
  • Profitability
    ROE, ROA, ROIC
    77
    Exceptional
    Communication Services median (n=49) 52
  • Technical
    Trend & volatility signals
    35
    Weak
    Communication Services median (n=49) 55
  • Risk
    Volatility & drawdown profile
    32
    Weak
    Communication Services median (n=49) 40
025405570100
Exceptional (70+)Strong (55–70)Average (40–55)Weak (25–40)Poor (<25)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Risk Summary

1 active
Rank gates
  • Sloan accruals — top decile[sloan_accruals_top_decile]Within-sector top decile of accruals / assets (Sloan 1996).

These flags keep the raw composite rank (project Rule 16) but forfeit the entered_top5 badge. Two of them — altman_distress and data_quality_input_corruption — additionally force a cautious recommendation; the others act as Top-5 disqualifiers without dictating the buy/hold/sell label on their own.

Manipulation index
Moderate
20/100
Composite penalty: 2.00 pts (informational; rank uses raw composite)

Driven entirely by the rank-gate flag(s) above — no additional annotate-only components fired.

Rolls up Phase 4.5 earnings-manipulation defenses (Sloan · Beneish · Dechow · REM · restatement · late-filing · earnings- quality time-series) into a single 0-100 risk index. The soft composite penalty (max 10 pts) is informational only — the ranking uses the raw composite score per project Rule 16.

Fair price check

4 different valuation methods each estimate what NFLXshould be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Heavily overvalued
Models suggest NFLX is far above estimated fair value
Today's price
$68.67
Median fair price
$29.39
-57% vs today's price
Of 4 methods:1 say cheap3 say pricey
  • P/E multiplesUndervalued
    thinks it's a bargainestimates $183.86, about 168% above today
  • EV/EBITDAOvervalued
    thinks it's expensiveestimates $40.62, about 41% below today
  • DCF (2-stage)Overvalued
    thinks it's expensiveestimates $18.15, about 74% below today
  • P/B multiplesOvervalued
    thinks it's expensiveestimates $17.32, about 75% below today

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair
$29.39
Margin of safety(vs fair value)
< −99%
Max (ex-outliers)
$183.86
Tangible BVPS

Median of all applicable methods (current price $68.67). Per-method estimates + each method’s cheap/fair/pricey read are in the Fair price check above. Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Defense layer. Flags mark elevated risk, never confirmed fraud. This model cannot catch every manipulation and decays after publication — weigh it against its stated error rates.

Supporting dataRaw fundamentals & data-quality provenance behind the scores above

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

MetricValue
Market cap$285.94B
Revenue (TTM)$48.37B
Net income (TTM)$13.65B
Operating cash flow (TTM)$11.97B
CapEx (TTM)$818.83M
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx$11.15B
Total assets$58.45B
Total liabilities$28.30B
Stockholders' equity$30.15B
Cash & equivalents$9.10B
Shares outstanding4.16B
EPS (basic)$3.28
EPS (diluted)$3.28
P/E ratio (TTM)20.95

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date
2026-07-17
Latest period end
2026-06-30
Filing lag
4 days
Missing metrics
5(gross_profit, dividends_paid, inventory, accounts_receivable, goodwill)

Composite is the 8-pillar weighted score over quality, value, growth, momentum, health, profitability, technical, and risk. Sentiment + ML pillars are reserved for a later phase; until then their weight redistributes pro-rata. Fair price is the median of 6 valuation methods (Graham, P/E / P/B / EV-EBITDA multiples, RIM, DCF) with outliers above 5× current price excluded from the max. Risk-overlay flags annotate only — they suppress the entered-top-5 badge but do not modify the composite.