#1411USNASDAQ

MRNA

Moderna

$148.87USD

Data as of 2026-09-05

Composite Score35.2Weak

−62

Margin of safety−62%Expensive

Fair value$91.93

Target$91.93

Loss chance82%High

SizeLarge cap

SectorHealth Care

Dividend—

TypeCommon stock

Price

Pillar breakdown

0–100 percentile rank against the current universe (sector-relative for Quality / Value / Growth / Profitability)

Health Care median (n=163)

Quality
Profit margins & asset efficiency
5
Poor
Health Care median (n=163) 51
Value
Price vs fundamentals
44
Average
Health Care median (n=163) 51
Growth
Revenue & earnings trajectory
38
Weak
Health Care median (n=163) 50
Momentum
Recent price strength
58
Strong
Health Care median (n=163) 62
Health
Balance sheet & solvency
68
Strong
Health Care median (n=163) 56
Profitability
ROE, ROA, ROIC
4
Poor
Health Care median (n=163) 49
Technical
Trend & volatility signals
70
Exceptional
Health Care median (n=163) 62
Risk
Volatility & drawdown profile
39
Weak
Health Care median (n=163) 47

025405570100

Exceptional (70+)Strong (55–70)Average (40–55)Weak (25–40)Poor (<25)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Risk Summary

1 active

Rank gates

Data-quality guard[data_quality_input_corruption]Upstream input out of range (e.g. share-count units) — fair-price methods suppressed (Step 7.5 sanity guard).

These flags keep the raw composite rank (project Rule 16) but forfeit the entered_top5 badge. Two of them — altman_distress and data_quality_input_corruption — additionally force a cautious recommendation; the others act as Top-5 disqualifiers without dictating the buy/hold/sell label on their own.

Manipulation index

Low

8/100

Composite penalty: −0.80 pts (informational; rank uses raw composite)

Also fired — not rank-gating (1)

Real Earnings Management (Roychowdhury 2006)[rem_suspect]

Rolls up Phase 4.5 earnings-manipulation defenses (Sloan · Beneish · Dechow · REM · restatement · late-filing · earnings- quality time-series) into a single 0-100 risk index. The soft composite penalty (max 10 pts) is informational only — the ranking uses the raw composite score per project Rule 16.

Fair price check

1 different valuation methods each estimate what MRNA should be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Looks overvalued

Models suggest MRNA is trading above fair value

Today's price

$148.87

Median fair price

$91.93

-38% vs today's price

Of 1 methods:1 say pricey

P/B multiplesOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $91.93, about 38% below today

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair: —
Margin of safety(vs fair value): -61.9%
Max (ex-outliers): —
Tangible BVPS: $16.53

Valuation output anomalous
Real Earnings Management

Median of all applicable methods (current price $148.87). Per-method estimates + each method’s cheap/fair/pricey read are in the Fair price check above. Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Defense layer. Flags mark elevated risk, never confirmed fraud. This model cannot catch every manipulation and decays after publication — weigh it against its stated error rates.

Supporting dataRaw fundamentals & data-quality provenance behind the scores above

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

Metric	Value
Market cap	$59.43B
Revenue (TTM)	$2.23B
Net income (TTM)	$-3.15B
Operating cash flow (TTM)	$-1.07B
CapEx (TTM)	$171.00M
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx	$-1.24B
Total assets	$10.96B
Total liabilities	$4.20B
Stockholders' equity	$6.76B
Cash & equivalents	$1.72B
Shares outstanding	399.24M
EPS (basic)	$-7.89
EPS (diluted)	$-7.89
P/E ratio (TTM)	N/A

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date: 2026-07-31
Latest period end: 2026-07-24
Filing lag: 36 days
Missing metrics: 4(gross_profit, interest_expense, dividends_paid, short_term_debt)