#25Energy· Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

MPCBuy

Marathon Petroleum

$255.03USD

Composite Score65.6Strong

−27

Margin of safety−27%Overvalued

Fair value$200.35

Target$502.92

Loss chance44%

Price (1y)

Loading price history…

Fair price check

6 different valuation methods each estimate what MPC should be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Looks overvalued

Models suggest MPC is trading above fair value

Today's price

$255.03

Median fair price

$200.35

-21% vs today

Of 5 methods:2 say cheap1 say fair2 say pricey(1 outlier excluded)

EV/EBITDAUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $502.92, about 97% above today
P/E multiplesUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $443.22, about 74% above today
DCF (2-stage)Fair
thinks it's fairly priced — estimates $260.30, about 2% above today
P/B multiplesOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $140.41, about 45% below today
Graham (defensive)Overvalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $75.76, about 70% below today
Residual IncomeOutlier
estimate looks unreliable — estimates $34.09 — likely unreliable

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair

$200.35

Margin of safety

-27.3%

Max (ex-outliers)

$502.92

Tangible BVPS

$16.30

Method	Value
Graham (defensive)	$75.76
P/E multiples(vs sector peers)	$443.22
P/B multiples(vs sector peers)	$140.41
EV/EBITDA(vs sector peers)	$502.92
Residual Income	$34.09
DCF (2-stage)	$260.30

goodwill heavy
extreme rim estimate

Median of all applicable methods (current price $255.03). Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Pillar breakdown

8 dimensions, each scored 0–100 against the universe

Energy median (n=21)

Quality
Profit margins & asset efficiency
76
Strong
Value
Price vs fundamentals
73
Strong
Growth
Revenue & earnings trajectory
45
Weak
Momentum
Recent price strength
81
Strong
Health
Balance sheet & solvency
42
Weak
Profitability
ROE, ROA, ROIC
37
Weak
Technical
Trend & volatility signals
68
Decent
Risk
Volatility & drawdown profile
68
Decent

0305070100

Strong (70+)Decent (50–70)Weak (30–50)Poor (<30)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

Metric	Value
Market cap	$74.45B
Revenue (TTM)	$135.38B
Net income (TTM)	$6.38B
Operating cash flow (TTM)	$9.44B
CapEx (TTM)	$3.74B
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx	$5.70B
Total assets	$88.19B
Total liabilities	$64.76B
Stockholders' equity	$16.75B
Cash & equivalents	$2.15B
Shares outstanding	291.94M
EPS (basic)	$1.73
EPS (diluted)	$1.73
P/E ratio (TTM)	11.66

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date: 2026-05-05
Latest period end: 2026-04-30
Filing lag: 11 days
Missing metrics: 2(gross_profit, research_and_development)

Phase 3c — composite is the 8-pillar weighted score over quality, value, growth, momentum, health, profitability, technical, and risk. Sentiment + ML pillars land in Phases 5-6; until then their weight redistributes pro-rata. Fair price is the median of 6 valuation methods (Graham, P/E / P/B / EV-EBITDA multiples, RIM, DCF) with outliers above 5× current price excluded from the max. Risk-overlay flags annotate only — they suppress the entered-top-5 badge but do not modify the composite.