#8USNYSE

MPC

Marathon Petroleum

$387.71USD

Data as of 2026-09-05

Composite Score72.8Exceptional

−80

Margin of safety−80%Expensive

Fair value$215.29

Target$638.04

Loss chance51%Neutral

SizeLarge cap

SectorEnergy

Dividend1.03%

TypeCommon stock

Price

Pillar breakdown

0–100 percentile rank against the current universe (sector-relative for Quality / Value / Growth / Profitability)

Energy median (n=71)

Quality
Profit margins & asset efficiency
93
Exceptional
Energy median (n=71) 53
Value
Price vs fundamentals
72
Exceptional
Energy median (n=71) 49
Growth
Revenue & earnings trajectory
37
Weak
Energy median (n=71) 51
Momentum
Recent price strength
90
Exceptional
Energy median (n=71) 54
Health
Balance sheet & solvency
52
Average
Energy median (n=71) 47
Profitability
ROE, ROA, ROIC
54
Average
Energy median (n=71) 53
Technical
Trend & volatility signals
71
Exceptional
Energy median (n=71) 62
Risk
Volatility & drawdown profile
80
Exceptional
Energy median (n=71) 60

025405570100

Exceptional (70+)Strong (55–70)Average (40–55)Weak (25–40)Poor (<25)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Fair price check

6 different valuation methods each estimate what MPC should be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Looks overvalued

Models suggest MPC is trading above fair value

Today's price

$387.71

Median fair price

$215.29

-44% vs today's price

Of 5 methods:2 say cheap3 say pricey(1 outlier excluded)

P/E multiplesUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $638.04, about 65% above today
EV/EBITDAUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $506.50, about 31% above today
DCF (2-stage)Overvalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $290.60, about 25% below today
P/B multiplesOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $139.99, about 64% below today
Graham (defensive)Overvalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $94.66, about 76% below today
Residual IncomeOutlier
estimate looks unreliable — estimates $48.64 — likely unreliable

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair: $215.29
Margin of safety(vs fair value): -80.1%
Max (ex-outliers): $638.04
Tangible BVPS: $25.46

Goodwill-heavy balance sheet
Extreme Residual-Income estimate

Median of all applicable methods (current price $387.71). Per-method estimates + each method’s cheap/fair/pricey read are in the Fair price check above. Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Defense layer. Flags mark elevated risk, never confirmed fraud. This model cannot catch every manipulation and decays after publication — weigh it against its stated error rates.

Supporting dataRaw fundamentals & data-quality provenance behind the scores above

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

Metric	Value
Market cap	$108.88B
Revenue (TTM)	$153.58B
Net income (TTM)	$10.31B
Operating cash flow (TTM)	$17.13B
CapEx (TTM)	$4.23B
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx	$12.90B
Total assets	$94.31B
Total liabilities	$68.59B
Stockholders' equity	$19.08B
Cash & equivalents	$7.77B
Shares outstanding	280.82M
EPS (basic)	$36.72
EPS (diluted)	$36.72
P/E ratio (TTM)	10.56

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date: 2026-08-04
Latest period end: 2026-07-30
Filing lag: 32 days
Missing metrics: 2(gross_profit, research_and_development)