#1342USNASDAQ

KDP

Keurig Dr Pepper

$32.88USD

Data as of 2026-09-05

Composite Score37.9Weak

−30

Margin of safety−30%Overvalued

Fair value$25.28

Target$56.35

Loss chance73%Moderate-high

SizeLarge cap

SectorConsumer Staples

Dividend2.80%

TypeCommon stock

Price

Pillar breakdown

0–100 percentile rank against the current universe (sector-relative for Quality / Value / Growth / Profitability)

Consumer Staples median (n=76)

Quality
Profit margins & asset efficiency
24
Poor
Consumer Staples median (n=76) 47
Value
Price vs fundamentals
36
Weak
Consumer Staples median (n=76) 51
Growth
Revenue & earnings trajectory
44
Average
Consumer Staples median (n=76) 49
Momentum
Recent price strength
56
Strong
Consumer Staples median (n=76) 45
Health
Balance sheet & solvency
18
Poor
Consumer Staples median (n=76) 40
Profitability
ROE, ROA, ROIC
43
Average
Consumer Staples median (n=76) 48
Technical
Trend & volatility signals
72
Exceptional
Consumer Staples median (n=76) 51
Risk
Volatility & drawdown profile
66
Strong
Consumer Staples median (n=76) 51

025405570100

Exceptional (70+)Strong (55–70)Average (40–55)Weak (25–40)Poor (<25)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Risk Summary

1 active

Rank gates

Altman financial distress[altman_distress]Altman Z″ below 1.10 — financial-distress zone (Altman 1968).

These flags keep the raw composite rank (project Rule 16) but forfeit the entered_top5 badge. Two of them — altman_distress and data_quality_input_corruption — additionally force a cautious recommendation; the others act as Top-5 disqualifiers without dictating the buy/hold/sell label on their own.

Manipulation index

Low

3/100

Composite penalty: −0.30 pts (informational; rank uses raw composite)

Also fired — not rank-gating (1)

Beneish M-score warning band[beneish_high]

Rolls up Phase 4.5 earnings-manipulation defenses (Sloan · Beneish · Dechow · REM · restatement · late-filing · earnings- quality time-series) into a single 0-100 risk index. The soft composite penalty (max 10 pts) is informational only — the ranking uses the raw composite score per project Rule 16.

Fair price check

4 different valuation methods each estimate what KDP should be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Looks overvalued

Models suggest KDP is trading above fair value

Today's price

$32.88

Median fair price

$25.28

-23% vs today's price

Of 3 methods:1 say cheap2 say pricey(1 outlier excluded)

P/B multiplesUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $56.35, about 71% above today
P/E multiplesOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $27.60, about 16% below today
EV/EBITDAOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $22.96, about 30% below today
DCF (2-stage)Outlier
estimate looks unreliable — estimates $2.18 — likely unreliable

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair: $25.28
Margin of safety(vs fair value): -30.1%
Max (ex-outliers): $56.35
Tangible BVPS: —

Extreme DCF estimate
Beneish M-score (warning band)

Median of all applicable methods (current price $32.88). Per-method estimates + each method’s cheap/fair/pricey read are in the Fair price check above. Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Defense layer. Flags mark elevated risk, never confirmed fraud. This model cannot catch every manipulation and decays after publication — weigh it against its stated error rates.

Supporting dataRaw fundamentals & data-quality provenance behind the scores above

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

Metric	Value
Market cap	$44.74B
Revenue (TTM)	$20.09B
Net income (TTM)	$1.64B
Operating cash flow (TTM)	$2.53B
CapEx (TTM)	$557.00M
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx	$1.97B
Total assets	$87.62B
Total liabilities	$53.97B
Stockholders' equity	$25.03B
Cash & equivalents	$1.52B
Shares outstanding	1.36B
EPS (basic)	$1.21
EPS (diluted)	$1.21
P/E ratio (TTM)	27.23

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date: 2026-08-10
Latest period end: 2026-08-10
Filing lag: 26 days
Missing metrics: 2(research_and_development, interest_expense)