#1222USNASDAQ

KDP

Keurig Dr Pepper

$30.21USD

Data as of 2026-07-21

Composite Score41.6Average

−8

Margin of safety−8%Fair value

Fair value$27.93

Target$56.67

Loss chance51%Neutral

SizeLarge cap

SectorConsumer Staples

Dividend3.02%

TypeCommon stock

Price

Pillar breakdown

0–100 percentile rank against the current universe (sector-relative for Quality / Value / Growth / Profitability)

Consumer Staples median (n=76)

Quality
Profit margins & asset efficiency
27
Weak
Consumer Staples median (n=76) 50
Value
Price vs fundamentals
42
Average
Consumer Staples median (n=76) 53
Growth
Revenue & earnings trajectory
44
Average
Consumer Staples median (n=76) 48
Momentum
Recent price strength
57
Strong
Consumer Staples median (n=76) 43
Health
Balance sheet & solvency
56
Strong
Consumer Staples median (n=76) 40
Profitability
ROE, ROA, ROIC
48
Average
Consumer Staples median (n=76) 50
Technical
Trend & volatility signals
27
Weak
Consumer Staples median (n=76) 52
Risk
Volatility & drawdown profile
53
Average
Consumer Staples median (n=76) 52

025405570100

Exceptional (70+)Strong (55–70)Average (40–55)Weak (25–40)Poor (<25)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Risk Summary

1 active

Rank gates

Sloan accruals — top decile[sloan_accruals_top_decile]Within-sector top decile of accruals / assets (Sloan 1996).

These flags keep the raw composite rank (project Rule 16) but forfeit the entered_top5 badge. Two of them — altman_distress and data_quality_input_corruption — additionally force a cautious recommendation; the others act as Top-5 disqualifiers without dictating the buy/hold/sell label on their own.

Manipulation index

Moderate

20/100

Composite penalty: −2.00 pts (informational; rank uses raw composite)

Driven entirely by the rank-gate flag(s) above — no additional annotate-only components fired.

Rolls up Phase 4.5 earnings-manipulation defenses (Sloan · Beneish · Dechow · REM · restatement · late-filing · earnings- quality time-series) into a single 0-100 risk index. The soft composite penalty (max 10 pts) is informational only — the ranking uses the raw composite score per project Rule 16.

Fair price check

4 different valuation methods each estimate what KDPshould be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Near fair value

Models suggest KDP is priced roughly in line

Today's price

$30.21

Median fair price

$27.93

-8% vs today's price

Of 3 methods:1 say cheap1 say fair1 say pricey(1 outlier excluded)

P/B multiplesUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $56.67, about 88% above today
P/E multiplesFair
thinks it's fairly priced — estimates $29.89, about 1% below today
EV/EBITDAOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $25.97, about 14% below today
DCF (2-stage)Outlier
estimate looks unreliable — estimates $4.35 — likely unreliable

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair: $27.93
Margin of safety(vs fair value): -8.2%
Max (ex-outliers): $56.67
Tangible BVPS: —

Extreme DCF estimate

Median of all applicable methods (current price $30.21). Per-method estimates + each method’s cheap/fair/pricey read are in the Fair price check above. Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Defense layer. Flags mark elevated risk, never confirmed fraud. This model cannot catch every manipulation and decays after publication — weigh it against its stated error rates.

Supporting dataRaw fundamentals & data-quality provenance behind the scores above

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

Metric	Value
Market cap	$41.10B
Revenue (TTM)	$16.94B
Net income (TTM)	$1.83B
Operating cash flow (TTM)	$2.06B
CapEx (TTM)	$482.00M
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx	$1.58B
Total assets	$73.14B
Total liabilities	$39.54B
Stockholders' equity	$25.26B
Cash & equivalents	$898.00M
Shares outstanding	1.36B
EPS (basic)	$1.35
EPS (diluted)	$1.35
P/E ratio (TTM)	22.44

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date: 2026-04-23
Latest period end: 2026-04-21
Filing lag: 89 days
Missing metrics: 1(interest_expense)