#20USNASDAQ

KALU

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation

$160.77USD

Data as of 2026-09-05

Composite Score69.9Exceptional

+30

Margin of safety+30%Undervalued

Fair value$230.49

Target$386.24

Loss chance27%Moderate-low

SizeMid cap

SectorMaterials

Dividend1.92%

TypeCommon stock

Price

Pillar breakdown

0–100 percentile rank against the current universe (sector-relative for Quality / Value / Growth / Profitability)

Materials median (n=77)

Quality
Profit margins & asset efficiency
85
Exceptional
Materials median (n=77) 54
Value
Price vs fundamentals
74
Exceptional
Materials median (n=77) 52
Growth
Revenue & earnings trajectory
62
Strong
Materials median (n=77) 47
Momentum
Recent price strength
60
Strong
Materials median (n=77) 43
Health
Balance sheet & solvency
68
Strong
Materials median (n=77) 52
Profitability
ROE, ROA, ROIC
56
Strong
Materials median (n=77) 56
Technical
Trend & volatility signals
47
Average
Materials median (n=77) 52
Risk
Volatility & drawdown profile
54
Average
Materials median (n=77) 46

025405570100

Exceptional (70+)Strong (55–70)Average (40–55)Weak (25–40)Poor (<25)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Risk Summary

2 active

Rank gates

Sloan accruals — top decile[sloan_accruals_top_decile]Within-sector top decile of accruals / assets (Sloan 1996).
Net share issuance — top decile[net_issuance_top_decile]Top-decile net issuance over the trailing year (Pontiff-Woodgate 2008 / Daniel-Titman 2006).

These flags keep the raw composite rank (project Rule 16) but forfeit the entered_top5 badge. Two of them — altman_distress and data_quality_input_corruption — additionally force a cautious recommendation; the others act as Top-5 disqualifiers without dictating the buy/hold/sell label on their own.

Manipulation index

Moderate

25/100

Composite penalty: −2.50 pts (informational; rank uses raw composite)

Also fired — not rank-gating (1)

Accruals momentum (Δ TATA > 0.05 over 3y)[accruals_momentum_high]

Rolls up Phase 4.5 earnings-manipulation defenses (Sloan · Beneish · Dechow · REM · restatement · late-filing · earnings- quality time-series) into a single 0-100 risk index. The soft composite penalty (max 10 pts) is informational only — the ranking uses the raw composite score per project Rule 16.

Fair price check

4 different valuation methods each estimate what KALU should be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Looks undervalued

Models suggest KALU is trading below fair value

Today's price

$160.77

Median fair price

$230.49

+43% vs today's price

Of 4 methods:2 say cheap1 say fair1 say pricey

EV/EBITDAUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $386.24, about 140% above today
P/E multiplesUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $315.19, about 96% above today
P/B multiplesFair
thinks it's fairly priced — estimates $145.78, about 9% below today
Graham (defensive)Overvalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $71.46, about 56% below today

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair: $230.49
Margin of safety(vs fair value): +30.2%
Max (ex-outliers): $386.24
Tangible BVPS: $54.21

Accruals momentum
Value-trap risk (RIM)

Median of all applicable methods (current price $160.77). Per-method estimates + each method’s cheap/fair/pricey read are in the Fair price check above. Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Defense layer. Flags mark elevated risk, never confirmed fraud. This model cannot catch every manipulation and decays after publication — weigh it against its stated error rates.

Supporting dataRaw fundamentals & data-quality provenance behind the scores above

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

Metric	Value
Market cap	$2.63B
Revenue (TTM)	$4.14B
Net income (TTM)	$227.00M
Operating cash flow (TTM)	$185.90M
CapEx (TTM)	$98.90M
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx	$87.00M
Total assets	$2.91B
Total liabilities	$1.97B
Stockholders' equity	$943.80M
Cash & equivalents	$58.50M
Shares outstanding	16.35M
EPS (basic)	$13.88
EPS (diluted)	$13.88
P/E ratio (TTM)	11.58

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date: 2026-07-23
Latest period end: 2026-07-20
Filing lag: 44 days
Missing metrics: 3(gross_profit, research_and_development, sga_expense)