#5USNASDAQ

HRMY

Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.

$38.23USD

Data as of 2026-10-14

Composite Score76.6Exceptional

+44

Margin of safety+44%Undervalued

Fair value$67.68

Target$117.23

Loss chance14%Low

SizeMid cap

SectorHealth Care

DividendNone

TypeCommon stock

Price

Pillar breakdown

0–100 percentile rank against the current universe (sector-relative for Quality / Value / Growth / Profitability)

Health Care median (n=163)

Quality
Profit margins & asset efficiency
77
Exceptional
Health Care median (n=163) 51
Value
Price vs fundamentals
85
Exceptional
Health Care median (n=163) 52
Growth
Revenue & earnings trajectory
65
Strong
Health Care median (n=163) 50
Momentum
Recent price strength
85
Exceptional
Health Care median (n=163) 66
Health
Balance sheet & solvency
89
Exceptional
Health Care median (n=163) 56
Profitability
ROE, ROA, ROIC
82
Exceptional
Health Care median (n=163) 49
Technical
Trend & volatility signals
35
Weak
Health Care median (n=163) 57
Risk
Volatility & drawdown profile
50
Average
Health Care median (n=163) 47

025405570100

Exceptional (70+)Strong (55–70)Average (40–55)Weak (25–40)Poor (<25)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Recent regulatory events

Going-concern disclosure (10-K)Annotate

Risk Summary

1 active

Rank gates

Beneish M-score veto[beneish_manipulation_veto]Beneish M-score above −1.78 — earnings manipulation likely (Beneish 1999).

These flags keep the raw composite rank (project Rule 16) but forfeit the entered_top5 badge. Two of them — altman_distress and data_quality_input_corruption — additionally force a cautious recommendation; the others act as Top-5 disqualifiers without dictating the buy/hold/sell label on their own.

Manipulation index

Moderate

23/100

Composite penalty: −2.30 pts (informational; rank uses raw composite)

Also fired — not rank-gating (2)

Restatement history (10-K/A, 5y)[restatement_history]
Beneish M-score warning band[beneish_high]

Rolls up Phase 4.5 earnings-manipulation defenses (Sloan · Beneish · Dechow · REM · restatement · late-filing · earnings- quality time-series) into a single 0-100 risk index. The soft composite penalty (max 10 pts) is informational only — the ranking uses the raw composite score per project Rule 16.

Fair price check

6 different valuation methods each estimate what HRMY should be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Looks undervalued

Models suggest HRMY is trading below fair value

Today's price

$38.23

Median fair price

$67.68

+77% vs today's price

Of 6 methods:4 say cheap2 say pricey

EV/EBITDAUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $117.23, about 207% above today
P/B multiplesUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $98.88, about 159% above today
P/E multiplesUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $80.37, about 110% above today
DCF (2-stage)Undervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $54.99, about 44% above today
Graham (defensive)Overvalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $29.54, about 23% below today
Residual IncomeOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $26.65, about 30% below today

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair: $67.68
Margin of safety(vs fair value): +43.5%
Max (ex-outliers): $117.23
Tangible BVPS: $15.83

Beneish M-score (warning band)
Restatement history

Median of all applicable methods (current price $38.23). Per-method estimates + each method’s cheap/fair/pricey read are in the Fair price check above. Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Defense layer. Flags mark elevated risk, never confirmed fraud. This model cannot catch every manipulation and decays after publication — weigh it against its stated error rates.

Supporting dataRaw fundamentals & data-quality provenance behind the scores above

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

Metric	Value
Market cap	$2.23B
Revenue (TTM)	$959.90M
Net income (TTM)	$181.27M
Operating cash flow (TTM)	$355.08M
CapEx (TTM)	$310.00K
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx	$354.77M
Total assets	$1.37B
Total liabilities	$373.84M
Stockholders' equity	$999.24M
Cash & equivalents	$549.77M
Shares outstanding	58.24M
EPS (basic)	$3.11
EPS (diluted)	$3.11
P/E ratio (TTM)	12.28

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date: 2026-08-04
Latest period end: 2026-07-31
Filing lag: 71 days
Missing metrics: 2(dividends_paid, goodwill)

Composite is the 8-pillar weighted score over quality, value, growth, momentum, health, profitability, technical, and risk. Sentiment + ML pillars are reserved for a later phase; until then their weight redistributes pro-rata. Fair price is the median of 6 valuation methods (Graham, P/E / P/B / EV-EBITDA multiples, RIM, DCF) with outliers above 5× current price excluded from the max. Risk-overlay flags annotate only — they suppress the entered-top-5 badge but do not modify the composite.