#1081USNYSE

HP

Helmerich & Payne, Inc.

$45.02USD

Data as of 2026-09-05

Composite Score44.2Average

−10

Margin of safety−10%Overvalued

Fair value$40.80

Target$57.05

Loss chance48%Neutral

SizeMid cap

SectorEnergy

Dividend2.22%

TypeCommon stock

Price

Pillar breakdown

0–100 percentile rank against the current universe (sector-relative for Quality / Value / Growth / Profitability)

Energy median (n=71)

Quality
Profit margins & asset efficiency
23
Poor
Energy median (n=71) 53
Value
Price vs fundamentals
48
Average
Energy median (n=71) 49
Growth
Revenue & earnings trajectory
61
Strong
Energy median (n=71) 51
Momentum
Recent price strength
52
Average
Energy median (n=71) 54
Health
Balance sheet & solvency
51
Average
Energy median (n=71) 47
Profitability
ROE, ROA, ROIC
35
Weak
Energy median (n=71) 53
Technical
Trend & volatility signals
69
Strong
Energy median (n=71) 62
Risk
Volatility & drawdown profile
59
Strong
Energy median (n=71) 60

025405570100

Exceptional (70+)Strong (55–70)Average (40–55)Weak (25–40)Poor (<25)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Risk Summary

Low

Manipulation index

5/100

Composite penalty: −0.50 pts (informational; rank uses raw composite)

Fired components (1)

Insider sell cluster (Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski 2012)[insider_sell_cluster]

Rolls up Phase 4.5 earnings-manipulation defenses (Sloan · Beneish · Dechow · REM · restatement · late-filing · earnings- quality time-series) into a single 0-100 risk index. The soft composite penalty (max 10 pts) is informational only — the ranking uses the raw composite score per project Rule 16.

Fair price check

4 different valuation methods each estimate what HP should be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Near fair value

Models suggest HP is priced roughly in line

Today's price

$45.02

Median fair price

$40.80

-9% vs today's price

Of 3 methods:1 say cheap1 say fair1 say pricey(1 outlier excluded)

P/B multiplesUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $57.05, about 27% above today
EV/EBITDAFair
thinks it's fairly priced — estimates $49.32, about 10% above today
Graham (defensive)Overvalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $32.27, about 28% below today
DCF (2-stage)Outlier
estimate looks unreliable — estimates $3.15 — likely unreliable

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair: $40.80
Margin of safety(vs fair value): -10.3%
Max (ex-outliers): $57.05
Tangible BVPS: $23.42

Extreme DCF estimate
Insider-sell cluster

Median of all applicable methods (current price $45.02). Per-method estimates + each method’s cheap/fair/pricey read are in the Fair price check above. Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Defense layer. Flags mark elevated risk, never confirmed fraud. This model cannot catch every manipulation and decays after publication — weigh it against its stated error rates.

Supporting dataRaw fundamentals & data-quality provenance behind the scores above

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

Metric	Value
Market cap	$4.50B
Revenue (TTM)	$4.00B
Net income (TTM)	$-8.73M
Operating cash flow (TTM)	$579.63M
CapEx (TTM)	$264.34M
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx	$315.29M
Total assets	$6.29B
Total liabilities	$2.25B
Stockholders' equity	$2.95B
Cash & equivalents	$204.43M
Shares outstanding	99.94M
EPS (basic)	$-0.09
EPS (diluted)	$-0.09
P/E ratio (TTM)	N/A

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date: 2026-08-06
Latest period end: 2026-07-30
Filing lag: 30 days
Missing metrics: 3(gross_profit, cost_of_revenue, research_and_development)