#38USNASDAQ

FIZZ

National Beverage Corp.

$30.78USD

Data as of 2026-07-21

Composite Score67.6Strong

−35

Margin of safety−35%Overvalued

Fair value$22.78

Target$43.95

Loss chance46%Neutral

SizeMid cap

SectorConsumer Staples

Dividend—

TypeCommon stock

Price

Pillar breakdown

0–100 percentile rank against the current universe (sector-relative for Quality / Value / Growth / Profitability)

Consumer Staples median (n=76)

Quality
Profit margins & asset efficiency
88
Exceptional
Consumer Staples median (n=76) 50
Value
Price vs fundamentals
60
Strong
Consumer Staples median (n=76) 53
Growth
Revenue & earnings trajectory
53
Average
Consumer Staples median (n=76) 48
Momentum
Recent price strength
41
Average
Consumer Staples median (n=76) 43
Health
Balance sheet & solvency
86
Exceptional
Consumer Staples median (n=76) 40
Profitability
ROE, ROA, ROIC
81
Exceptional
Consumer Staples median (n=76) 50
Technical
Trend & volatility signals
63
Strong
Consumer Staples median (n=76) 52
Risk
Volatility & drawdown profile
40
Average
Consumer Staples median (n=76) 52

025405570100

Exceptional (70+)Strong (55–70)Average (40–55)Weak (25–40)Poor (<25)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Recent regulatory events

Auditor change (8-K Item 4.01)AnnotateView filing

Latest 8-K: 2024-11-06

Risk Summary

1 active

Rank gates

Sloan accruals — top decile[sloan_accruals_top_decile]Within-sector top decile of accruals / assets (Sloan 1996).

These flags keep the raw composite rank (project Rule 16) but forfeit the entered_top5 badge. Two of them — altman_distress and data_quality_input_corruption — additionally force a cautious recommendation; the others act as Top-5 disqualifiers without dictating the buy/hold/sell label on their own.

Manipulation index

Moderate

20/100

Composite penalty: −2.00 pts (informational; rank uses raw composite)

Also fired — not rank-gating (1)

Restatement history (10-K/A, 5y)[restatement_history]

Rolls up Phase 4.5 earnings-manipulation defenses (Sloan · Beneish · Dechow · REM · restatement · late-filing · earnings- quality time-series) into a single 0-100 risk index. The soft composite penalty (max 10 pts) is informational only — the ranking uses the raw composite score per project Rule 16.

Fair price check

6 different valuation methods each estimate what FIZZshould be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Looks overvalued

Models suggest FIZZ is trading above fair value

Today's price

$30.78

Median fair price

$22.78

-26% vs today's price

Of 6 methods:2 say cheap4 say pricey

P/E multiplesUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $43.95, about 43% above today
EV/EBITDAUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $38.97, about 27% above today
DCF (2-stage)Overvalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $25.29, about 18% below today
P/B multiplesOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $20.26, about 34% below today
Residual IncomeOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $18.93, about 39% below today
Graham (defensive)Overvalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $17.05, about 45% below today

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair: $22.78
Margin of safety(vs fair value): -35.1%
Max (ex-outliers): $43.95
Tangible BVPS: $6.63

Restatement history

Median of all applicable methods (current price $30.78). Per-method estimates + each method’s cheap/fair/pricey read are in the Fair price check above. Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Defense layer. Flags mark elevated risk, never confirmed fraud. This model cannot catch every manipulation and decays after publication — weigh it against its stated error rates.

Supporting dataRaw fundamentals & data-quality provenance behind the scores above

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

Metric	Value
Market cap	$2.88B
Revenue (TTM)	$1.18B
Net income (TTM)	$183.65M
Operating cash flow (TTM)	$181.25M
CapEx (TTM)	$25.14M
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx	$156.11M
Total assets	$851.65M
Total liabilities	$215.93M
Stockholders' equity	$635.71M
Cash & equivalents	$349.54M
Shares outstanding	93.61M
EPS (basic)	$1.96
EPS (diluted)	$1.96
P/E ratio (TTM)	15.69

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date: 2026-07-01
Latest period end: 2026-06-29
Filing lag: 20 days
Missing metrics: 3(research_and_development, interest_expense, short_term_debt)

Composite is the 8-pillar weighted score over quality, value, growth, momentum, health, profitability, technical, and risk. Sentiment + ML pillars are reserved for a later phase; until then their weight redistributes pro-rata. Fair price is the median of 6 valuation methods (Graham, P/E / P/B / EV-EBITDA multiples, RIM, DCF) with outliers above 5× current price excluded from the max. Risk-overlay flags annotate only — they suppress the entered-top-5 badge but do not modify the composite.