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#375USNASDAQ

FAST

Fastenal

$45.01USD

Data as of 2026-07-21

Fair value$14.65
Target$32.30
Loss chance57%Neutral

Company attributes

SizeLarge cap
SectorIndustrials
Dividend2.14%
TypeCommon stock

Price

Interactive 5-year price history chart for FAST. Latest close $45.01.

Loading price history…

Pillar breakdown

0–100 percentile rank against the current universe (sector-relative for Quality / Value / Growth / Profitability)

Industrials median (n=257)
  • Quality
    Profit margins & asset efficiency
    91
    Exceptional
    Industrials median (n=257) 50
  • Value
    Price vs fundamentals
    18
    Poor
    Industrials median (n=257) 50
  • Growth
    Revenue & earnings trajectory
    28
    Weak
    Industrials median (n=257) 50
  • Momentum
    Recent price strength
    48
    Average
    Industrials median (n=257) 56
  • Health
    Balance sheet & solvency
    88
    Exceptional
    Industrials median (n=257) 59
  • Profitability
    ROE, ROA, ROIC
    91
    Exceptional
    Industrials median (n=257) 49
  • Technical
    Trend & volatility signals
    24
    Poor
    Industrials median (n=257) 45
  • Risk
    Volatility & drawdown profile
    62
    Strong
    Industrials median (n=257) 50
025405570100
Exceptional (70+)Strong (55–70)Average (40–55)Weak (25–40)Poor (<25)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Recent regulatory events

Latest 8-K: 2025-02-06

Risk Summary

Low
Manipulation index
5/100
Composite penalty: 0.50 pts (informational; rank uses raw composite)
Fired components (2)
  • Restatement history (10-K/A, 5y)[restatement_history]
  • Accruals momentum (Δ TATA > 0.05 over 3y)[accruals_momentum_high]

Rolls up Phase 4.5 earnings-manipulation defenses (Sloan · Beneish · Dechow · REM · restatement · late-filing · earnings- quality time-series) into a single 0-100 risk index. The soft composite penalty (max 10 pts) is informational only — the ranking uses the raw composite score per project Rule 16.

Fair price check

6 different valuation methods each estimate what FASTshould be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Heavily overvalued
Models suggest FAST is far above estimated fair value
Today's price
$45.01
Median fair price
$14.65
-67% vs today's price
Of 6 methods:6 say pricey
  • P/E multiplesOvervalued
    thinks it's expensiveestimates $32.30, about 28% below today
  • EV/EBITDAOvervalued
    thinks it's expensiveestimates $27.56, about 39% below today
  • P/B multiplesOvervalued
    thinks it's expensiveestimates $17.64, about 61% below today
  • Graham (defensive)Overvalued
    thinks it's expensiveestimates $11.66, about 74% below today
  • DCF (2-stage)Overvalued
    thinks it's expensiveestimates $10.68, about 76% below today
  • Residual IncomeOvervalued
    thinks it's expensiveestimates $9.28, about 79% below today

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair
$14.65
Margin of safety(vs fair value)
< −99%
Max (ex-outliers)
$32.30
Tangible BVPS
$3.55
  • Restatement history
  • Accruals momentum

Median of all applicable methods (current price $45.01). Per-method estimates + each method’s cheap/fair/pricey read are in the Fair price check above. Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Defense layer. Flags mark elevated risk, never confirmed fraud. This model cannot catch every manipulation and decays after publication — weigh it against its stated error rates.

Supporting dataRaw fundamentals & data-quality provenance behind the scores above

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

MetricValue
Market cap$51.65B
Revenue (TTM)$8.75B
Net income (TTM)$1.35B
Operating cash flow (TTM)$1.40B
CapEx (TTM)$243.30M
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx$1.16B
Total assets$5.29B
Total liabilitiesN/A
Stockholders' equity$4.07B
Cash & equivalents$204.70M
Shares outstanding1.15B
EPS (basic)$1.18
EPS (diluted)$1.18
P/E ratio (TTM)38.20

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date
2026-07-16
Latest period end
2026-07-10
Filing lag
5 days
Missing metrics
4(total_liabilities, research_and_development, goodwill, intangibles_net)

Composite is the 8-pillar weighted score over quality, value, growth, momentum, health, profitability, technical, and risk. Sentiment + ML pillars are reserved for a later phase; until then their weight redistributes pro-rata. Fair price is the median of 6 valuation methods (Graham, P/E / P/B / EV-EBITDA multiples, RIM, DCF) with outliers above 5× current price excluded from the max. Risk-overlay flags annotate only — they suppress the entered-top-5 badge but do not modify the composite.