#398USNASDAQ

FAST

Fastenal

$49.23USD

Data as of 2026-09-05

Composite Score56.4Strong

≤−99

Margin of safety−260%Expensive

Fair value$13.68

Target$27.16

Loss chance58%Neutral

SizeLarge cap

SectorIndustrials

Dividend1.95%

TypeCommon stock

Price

Pillar breakdown

0–100 percentile rank against the current universe (sector-relative for Quality / Value / Growth / Profitability)

Industrials median (n=263)

Quality
Profit margins & asset efficiency
91
Exceptional
Industrials median (n=263) 50
Value
Price vs fundamentals
10
Poor
Industrials median (n=263) 50
Growth
Revenue & earnings trajectory
27
Weak
Industrials median (n=263) 51
Momentum
Recent price strength
50
Average
Industrials median (n=263) 48
Health
Balance sheet & solvency
88
Exceptional
Industrials median (n=263) 57
Profitability
ROE, ROA, ROIC
91
Exceptional
Industrials median (n=263) 50
Technical
Trend & volatility signals
54
Average
Industrials median (n=263) 41
Risk
Volatility & drawdown profile
63
Strong
Industrials median (n=263) 48

025405570100

Exceptional (70+)Strong (55–70)Average (40–55)Weak (25–40)Poor (<25)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Recent regulatory events

Auditor change (8-K Item 4.01)AnnotateView filing

Latest 8-K: 2025-02-06

Risk Summary

Low

Manipulation index

5/100

Composite penalty: −0.50 pts (informational; rank uses raw composite)

Fired components (2)

Restatement history (10-K/A, 5y)[restatement_history]
Accruals momentum (Δ TATA > 0.05 over 3y)[accruals_momentum_high]

Rolls up Phase 4.5 earnings-manipulation defenses (Sloan · Beneish · Dechow · REM · restatement · late-filing · earnings- quality time-series) into a single 0-100 risk index. The soft composite penalty (max 10 pts) is informational only — the ranking uses the raw composite score per project Rule 16.

Fair price check

6 different valuation methods each estimate what FAST should be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Heavily overvalued

Models suggest FAST is far above estimated fair value

Today's price

$49.23

Median fair price

$13.68

-72% vs today's price

Of 5 methods:5 say pricey(1 outlier excluded)

P/E multiplesOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $27.16, about 45% below today
EV/EBITDAOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $24.77, about 50% below today
P/B multiplesOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $15.70, about 68% below today
Graham (defensive)Overvalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $11.66, about 76% below today
DCF (2-stage)Overvalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $10.68, about 78% below today
Residual IncomeOutlier
estimate looks unreliable — estimates $9.28 — likely unreliable

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair: $13.68
Margin of safety(vs fair value): < −99%
Max (ex-outliers): $27.16
Tangible BVPS: $3.55

Extreme Residual-Income estimate
Restatement history
Accruals momentum

Median of all applicable methods (current price $49.23). Per-method estimates + each method’s cheap/fair/pricey read are in the Fair price check above. Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Defense layer. Flags mark elevated risk, never confirmed fraud. This model cannot catch every manipulation and decays after publication — weigh it against its stated error rates.

Supporting dataRaw fundamentals & data-quality provenance behind the scores above

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

Metric	Value
Market cap	$56.49B
Revenue (TTM)	$8.75B
Net income (TTM)	$1.35B
Operating cash flow (TTM)	$1.40B
CapEx (TTM)	$243.30M
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx	$1.16B
Total assets	$5.29B
Total liabilities	N/A
Stockholders' equity	$4.07B
Cash & equivalents	$204.70M
Shares outstanding	1.15B
EPS (basic)	$1.18
EPS (diluted)	$1.18
P/E ratio (TTM)	41.78

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date: 2026-07-16
Latest period end: 2026-07-10
Filing lag: 51 days
Missing metrics: 4(total_liabilities, research_and_development, goodwill, intangibles_net)

Composite is the 8-pillar weighted score over quality, value, growth, momentum, health, profitability, technical, and risk. Sentiment + ML pillars are reserved for a later phase; until then their weight redistributes pro-rata. Fair price is the median of 6 valuation methods (Graham, P/E / P/B / EV-EBITDA multiples, RIM, DCF) with outliers above 5× current price excluded from the max. Risk-overlay flags annotate only — they suppress the entered-top-5 badge but do not modify the composite.