#50Industrials· Air Freight & Logistics

EXPDBuy

Expeditors International

$155.45USD

Composite Score62.5Strong

−35

Margin of safety−35%Overvalued

Fair value$115.03

Target$178.36

Loss chance46%

Price (1y)

Loading price history…

Fair price check

5 different valuation methods each estimate what EXPD should be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Looks overvalued

Models suggest EXPD is trading above fair value

Today's price

$155.45

Median fair price

$115.03

-26% vs today

Of 5 methods:2 say fair3 say pricey

P/E multiplesFair
thinks it's fairly priced — estimates $178.36, about 15% above today
EV/EBITDAFair
thinks it's fairly priced — estimates $158.10, about 2% above today
P/B multiplesOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $115.03, about 26% below today
Residual IncomeOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $46.83, about 70% below today
Graham (defensive)Overvalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $46.64, about 70% below today

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair

$115.03

Margin of safety

-35.1%

Max (ex-outliers)

$178.36

Tangible BVPS

$17.39

Method	Value
Graham (defensive)	$46.64
P/E multiples(vs sector peers)	$178.36
P/B multiples(vs sector peers)	$115.03
EV/EBITDA(vs sector peers)	$158.10
Residual Income	$46.83
DCF (2-stage)	skipped

Median of all applicable methods (current price $155.45). Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Pillar breakdown

8 dimensions, each scored 0–100 against the universe

Industrials median (n=79)

Quality
Profit margins & asset efficiency
74
Strong
Value
Price vs fundamentals
64
Decent
Growth
Revenue & earnings trajectory
35
Weak
Momentum
Recent price strength
62
Decent
Health
Balance sheet & solvency
68
Decent
Profitability
ROE, ROA, ROIC
56
Decent
Technical
Trend & volatility signals
60
Decent
Risk
Volatility & drawdown profile
61
Decent

0305070100

Strong (70+)Decent (50–70)Weak (30–50)Poor (<30)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

Metric	Value
Market cap	$20.33B
Revenue (TTM)	$11.19B
Net income (TTM)	$837.99M
Operating cash flow (TTM)	$973.11M
CapEx (TTM)	$52.56M
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx	$920.55M
Total assets	$4.78B
Total liabilities	N/A
Stockholders' equity	$2.28B
Cash & equivalents	$1.32B
Shares outstanding	130.79M
EPS (basic)	$1.72
EPS (diluted)	$1.71
P/E ratio (TTM)	24.26

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date: 2026-05-06
Latest period end: 2026-05-01
Filing lag: 10 days
Missing metrics: 9(total_liabilities, gross_profit, cost_of_revenue, research_and_development, sga_expense, interest_expense, inventory, long_term_debt, short_term_debt)

Phase 3c — composite is the 8-pillar weighted score over quality, value, growth, momentum, health, profitability, technical, and risk. Sentiment + ML pillars land in Phases 5-6; until then their weight redistributes pro-rata. Fair price is the median of 6 valuation methods (Graham, P/E / P/B / EV-EBITDA multiples, RIM, DCF) with outliers above 5× current price excluded from the max. Risk-overlay flags annotate only — they suppress the entered-top-5 badge but do not modify the composite.