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#37Energy· Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

EXEStrong Buy

Expand Energy

$96.69USD
64
Composite Score63.7Strong
+43
Margin of safety+43%Undervalued
Fair value$168.62
Target$358.93
Loss chance20%

Price (1y)

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Fair price check

5 different valuation methods each estimate what EXE should be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Looks undervalued
Models suggest EXE is trading below fair value
Today's price
$96.69
Median fair price
$168.62
+74% vs today
Of 5 methods:3 say cheap1 say fair1 say pricey
  • EV/EBITDAUndervalued
    thinks it's a bargain — estimates $358.93, about 271% above today
  • P/E multiplesUndervalued
    thinks it's a bargain — estimates $182.16, about 88% above today
  • P/B multiplesUndervalued
    thinks it's a bargain — estimates $168.62, about 74% above today
  • Graham (defensive)Fair
    thinks it's fairly priced — estimates $110.50, about 14% above today
  • DCF (2-stage)Overvalued
    thinks it's expensive — estimates $52.92, about 45% below today

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair
$168.62
Margin of safety
+42.7%
Max (ex-outliers)
$358.93
Tangible BVPS
$81.64
MethodValue
Graham (defensive)$110.50
P/E multiples(vs sub industry peers)$182.16
P/B multiples(vs sub industry peers)$168.62
EV/EBITDA(vs sector peers)$358.93
Residual Incomeskipped
DCF (2-stage)$52.92
  • value trap risk

Median of all applicable methods (current price $96.69). Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Pillar breakdown

8 dimensions, each scored 0–100 against the universe

Energy median (n=21)
  • Quality
    Profit margins & asset efficiency
    63
    Decent
  • Value
    Price vs fundamentals
    91
    Strong
  • Growth
    Revenue & earnings trajectory
    57
    Decent
  • Momentum
    Recent price strength
    23
    Poor
  • Health
    Balance sheet & solvency
    69
    Decent
  • Profitability
    ROE, ROA, ROIC
    67
    Decent
  • Technical
    Trend & volatility signals
    58
    Decent
  • Risk
    Volatility & drawdown profile
    51
    Decent
0305070100
Strong (70+)Decent (50–70)Weak (30–50)Poor (<30)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

MetricValue
Market cap$23.13B
Revenue (TTM)$14.32B
Net income (TTM)$3.23B
Operating cash flow (TTM)$5.88B
CapEx (TTM)$2.88B
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx$3.00B
Total assets$29.52B
Total liabilities$9.97B
Stockholders' equity$19.55B
Cash & equivalents$2.22B
Shares outstanding239.23M
EPS (basic)$4.83
EPS (diluted)$4.81
P/E ratio (TTM)7.17

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date
2026-04-28
Latest period end
2026-04-24
Filing lag
18 days
Missing metrics
4(gross_profit, cost_of_revenue, research_and_development, intangibles_net)

Phase 3c — composite is the 8-pillar weighted score over quality, value, growth, momentum, health, profitability, technical, and risk. Sentiment + ML pillars land in Phases 5-6; until then their weight redistributes pro-rata. Fair price is the median of 6 valuation methods (Graham, P/E / P/B / EV-EBITDA multiples, RIM, DCF) with outliers above 5× current price excluded from the max. Risk-overlay flags annotate only — they suppress the entered-top-5 badge but do not modify the composite.