#50USNASDAQ

DLTR

Dollar Tree

$117.61USD

Data as of 2026-10-14

Composite Score67.2Strong

Margin of safety+3%Fair value

Fair value$121.39

Target$204.50

Loss chance32%Moderate-low

SizeLarge cap

SectorConsumer Staples

DividendNone

TypeCommon stock

Price

Pillar breakdown

0–100 percentile rank against the current universe (sector-relative for Quality / Value / Growth / Profitability)

Consumer Staples median (n=75)

Quality
Profit margins & asset efficiency
89
Exceptional
Consumer Staples median (n=75) 48
Value
Price vs fundamentals
68
Strong
Consumer Staples median (n=75) 50
Growth
Revenue & earnings trajectory
55
Strong
Consumer Staples median (n=75) 50
Momentum
Recent price strength
55
Strong
Consumer Staples median (n=75) 50
Health
Balance sheet & solvency
37
Weak
Consumer Staples median (n=75) 41
Profitability
ROE, ROA, ROIC
69
Strong
Consumer Staples median (n=75) 50
Technical
Trend & volatility signals
75
Exceptional
Consumer Staples median (n=75) 55
Risk
Volatility & drawdown profile
47
Average
Consumer Staples median (n=75) 54

025405570100

Exceptional (70+)Strong (55–70)Average (40–55)Weak (25–40)Poor (<25)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Risk Summary

Low

Manipulation index

5/100

Composite penalty: −0.50 pts (informational; rank uses raw composite)

Fired components (1)

Accruals momentum (Δ TATA > 0.05 over 3y)[accruals_momentum_high]

Rolls up Phase 4.5 earnings-manipulation defenses (Sloan · Beneish · Dechow · REM · restatement · late-filing · earnings- quality time-series) into a single 0-100 risk index. The soft composite penalty (max 10 pts) is informational only — the ranking uses the raw composite score per project Rule 16.

Fair price check

4 different valuation methods each estimate what DLTR should be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Near fair value

Models suggest DLTR is priced roughly in line

Today's price

$117.61

Median fair price

$121.39

+3% vs today's price

Of 4 methods:2 say cheap2 say pricey

P/E multiplesUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $204.50, about 74% above today
EV/EBITDAUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $187.17, about 59% above today
DCF (2-stage)Overvalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $55.61, about 53% below today
P/B multiplesOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $54.87, about 53% below today

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair: $121.39
Margin of safety(vs fair value): +3.1%
Max (ex-outliers): $204.50
Tangible BVPS: $15.98

Accruals momentum
Value-trap risk (RIM)

Median of all applicable methods (current price $117.61). Per-method estimates + each method’s cheap/fair/pricey read are in the Fair price check above. Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Defense layer. Flags mark elevated risk, never confirmed fraud. This model cannot catch every manipulation and decays after publication — weigh it against its stated error rates.

Supporting dataRaw fundamentals & data-quality provenance behind the scores above

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

Metric	Value
Market cap	$22.07B
Revenue (TTM)	$20.07B
Net income (TTM)	$1.61B
Operating cash flow (TTM)	$3.04B
CapEx (TTM)	$845.40M
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx	$2.20B
Total assets	$14.03B
Total liabilities	$10.60B
Stockholders' equity	$3.43B
Cash & equivalents	$1.06B
Shares outstanding	187.63M
EPS (basic)	$8.59
EPS (diluted)	$8.59
P/E ratio (TTM)	13.69

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date: 2026-08-27
Latest period end: 2026-08-25
Filing lag: 48 days
Missing metrics: 4(research_and_development, interest_expense, dividends_paid, inventory)