#21USNYSE

CF

CF Industries

$122.96USD

Data as of 2026-07-21

Composite Score69.2Strong

Margin of safety+2%Fair value

Fair value$126.11

Target$279.48

Loss chance34%Moderate-low

SizeLarge cap

SectorMaterials

Dividend1.94%

TypeCommon stock

Price

Pillar breakdown

0–100 percentile rank against the current universe (sector-relative for Quality / Value / Growth / Profitability)

Materials median (n=78)

Quality
Profit margins & asset efficiency
91
Exceptional
Materials median (n=78) 52
Value
Price vs fundamentals
73
Exceptional
Materials median (n=78) 52
Growth
Revenue & earnings trajectory
33
Weak
Materials median (n=78) 45
Momentum
Recent price strength
47
Average
Materials median (n=78) 47
Health
Balance sheet & solvency
75
Exceptional
Materials median (n=78) 53
Profitability
ROE, ROA, ROIC
77
Exceptional
Materials median (n=78) 53
Technical
Trend & volatility signals
63
Strong
Materials median (n=78) 47
Risk
Volatility & drawdown profile
63
Strong
Materials median (n=78) 46

025405570100

Exceptional (70+)Strong (55–70)Average (40–55)Weak (25–40)Poor (<25)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Risk Summary

Low

Manipulation index

3/100

Composite penalty: −0.30 pts (informational; rank uses raw composite)

Fired components (1)

Beneish M-score warning band[beneish_high]

Rolls up Phase 4.5 earnings-manipulation defenses (Sloan · Beneish · Dechow · REM · restatement · late-filing · earnings- quality time-series) into a single 0-100 risk index. The soft composite penalty (max 10 pts) is informational only — the ranking uses the raw composite score per project Rule 16.

Fair price check

6 different valuation methods each estimate what CFshould be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Near fair value

Models suggest CF is priced roughly in line

Today's price

$122.96

Median fair price

$126.11

+3% vs today's price

Of 6 methods:3 say cheap3 say pricey

P/E multiplesUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $279.48, about 127% above today
EV/EBITDAUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $263.38, about 114% above today
DCF (2-stage)Undervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $167.69, about 36% above today
P/B multiplesOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $84.54, about 31% below today
Graham (defensive)Overvalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $52.34, about 57% below today
Residual IncomeOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $30.45, about 75% below today

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair: $126.11
Margin of safety(vs fair value): +2.5%
Max (ex-outliers): $279.48
Tangible BVPS: $15.49

Goodwill-heavy balance sheet
Beneish M-score (warning band)

Median of all applicable methods (current price $122.96). Per-method estimates + each method’s cheap/fair/pricey read are in the Fair price check above. Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Defense layer. Flags mark elevated risk, never confirmed fraud. This model cannot catch every manipulation and decays after publication — weigh it against its stated error rates.

Supporting dataRaw fundamentals & data-quality provenance behind the scores above

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

Metric	Value
Market cap	$18.89B
Revenue (TTM)	$7.41B
Net income (TTM)	$2.12B
Operating cash flow (TTM)	$2.66B
CapEx (TTM)	$1.04B
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx	$1.62B
Total assets	$14.61B
Total liabilities	N/A
Stockholders' equity	$5.34B
Cash & equivalents	$287.00M
Shares outstanding	153.63M
EPS (basic)	$13.82
EPS (diluted)	$13.82
P/E ratio (TTM)	8.90

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date: 2026-05-07
Latest period end: 2026-05-04
Filing lag: 75 days
Missing metrics: 2(total_liabilities, research_and_development)