#11USNYSE

CF

CF Industries

$137.81USD

Data as of 2026-09-05

Composite Score72.0Exceptional

−4

Margin of safety−4%Fair value

Fair value$133.07

Target$375.00

Loss chance31%Moderate-low

SizeLarge cap

SectorMaterials

Dividend1.74%

TypeCommon stock

Price

Pillar breakdown

0–100 percentile rank against the current universe (sector-relative for Quality / Value / Growth / Profitability)

Materials median (n=77)

Quality
Profit margins & asset efficiency
91
Exceptional
Materials median (n=77) 54
Value
Price vs fundamentals
73
Exceptional
Materials median (n=77) 52
Growth
Revenue & earnings trajectory
31
Weak
Materials median (n=77) 47
Momentum
Recent price strength
65
Strong
Materials median (n=77) 43
Health
Balance sheet & solvency
77
Exceptional
Materials median (n=77) 52
Profitability
ROE, ROA, ROIC
80
Exceptional
Materials median (n=77) 56
Technical
Trend & volatility signals
63
Strong
Materials median (n=77) 52
Risk
Volatility & drawdown profile
72
Exceptional
Materials median (n=77) 46

025405570100

Exceptional (70+)Strong (55–70)Average (40–55)Weak (25–40)Poor (<25)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Risk Summary

Low

Manipulation index

5/100

Composite penalty: −0.50 pts (informational; rank uses raw composite)

Fired components (1)

Accruals momentum (Δ TATA > 0.05 over 3y)[accruals_momentum_high]

Rolls up Phase 4.5 earnings-manipulation defenses (Sloan · Beneish · Dechow · REM · restatement · late-filing · earnings- quality time-series) into a single 0-100 risk index. The soft composite penalty (max 10 pts) is informational only — the ranking uses the raw composite score per project Rule 16.

Fair price check

6 different valuation methods each estimate what CF should be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Near fair value

Models suggest CF is priced roughly in line

Today's price

$137.81

Median fair price

$133.07

-3% vs today's price

Of 6 methods:3 say cheap3 say pricey

P/E multiplesUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $375.00, about 172% above today
EV/EBITDAUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $340.30, about 147% above today
DCF (2-stage)Undervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $170.23, about 24% above today
P/B multiplesOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $95.92, about 30% below today
Graham (defensive)Overvalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $57.16, about 59% below today
Residual IncomeOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $36.31, about 74% below today

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair: $133.07
Margin of safety(vs fair value): -3.6%
Max (ex-outliers): $375.00
Tangible BVPS: $18.48

Goodwill-heavy balance sheet
Accruals momentum

Median of all applicable methods (current price $137.81). Per-method estimates + each method’s cheap/fair/pricey read are in the Fair price check above. Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Defense layer. Flags mark elevated risk, never confirmed fraud. This model cannot catch every manipulation and decays after publication — weigh it against its stated error rates.

Supporting dataRaw fundamentals & data-quality provenance behind the scores above

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

Metric	Value
Market cap	$20.86B
Revenue (TTM)	$7.74B
Net income (TTM)	$2.50B
Operating cash flow (TTM)	$2.98B
CapEx (TTM)	$1.07B
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx	$1.91B
Total assets	$15.10B
Total liabilities	N/A
Stockholders' equity	$5.75B
Cash & equivalents	$287.00M
Shares outstanding	151.34M
EPS (basic)	$16.52
EPS (diluted)	$16.52
P/E ratio (TTM)	8.34

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date: 2026-08-06
Latest period end: 2026-08-03
Filing lag: 30 days
Missing metrics: 2(total_liabilities, research_and_development)