#13Information Technology· Application Software

APPSell

AppLovin

$501.00USD

Composite Score66.9Strong

<−99

Margin of safety<−99%Expensive

Fair value$37.75

Target$447.14

Loss chance57%

Price (1y)

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Fair price check

6 different valuation methods each estimate what APP should be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Heavily overvalued

Models suggest APP is far above estimated fair value

Today's price

$501.00

Median fair price

$37.75

-92% vs today

Of 2 methods:2 say pricey(4 outliers excluded)

P/E multiplesOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $447.14, about 11% below today
EV/EBITDAOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $372.16, about 26% below today
P/B multiplesOutlier
estimate looks unreliable — estimates $40.09 — likely unreliable
Residual IncomeOutlier
estimate looks unreliable — estimates $35.42 — likely unreliable
DCF (2-stage)Outlier
estimate looks unreliable — estimates $26.00 — likely unreliable
Graham (defensive)Outlier
estimate looks unreliable — estimates $12.67 — likely unreliable

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair

$37.75

Margin of safety

< −99%

Max (ex-outliers)

$447.14

Tangible BVPS

$1.40

Method	Value
Graham (defensive)	$12.67
P/E multiples(vs sub industry peers)	$447.14
P/B multiples(vs sub industry peers)	$40.09
EV/EBITDA(vs sub industry peers)	$372.16
Residual Income	$35.42
DCF (2-stage)	$26.00

goodwill heavy
extreme graham estimate
extreme multiples pb estimate
extreme rim estimate
extreme dcf estimate

Median of all applicable methods (current price $501.00). Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Pillar breakdown

8 dimensions, each scored 0–100 against the universe

Information Technology median (n=73)

Quality
Profit margins & asset efficiency
95
Strong
Value
Price vs fundamentals
27
Poor
Growth
Revenue & earnings trajectory
83
Strong
Momentum
Recent price strength
48
Weak
Health
Balance sheet & solvency
79
Strong
Profitability
ROE, ROA, ROIC
94
Strong
Technical
Trend & volatility signals
63
Decent
Risk
Volatility & drawdown profile
36
Weak

0305070100

Strong (70+)Decent (50–70)Weak (30–50)Poor (<30)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

Metric	Value
Market cap	$168.48B
Revenue (TTM)	$6.16B
Net income (TTM)	$3.96B
Operating cash flow (TTM)	$4.43B
CapEx (TTM)	$4.95M
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx	$4.43B
Total assets	$7.71B
Total liabilities	$5.34B
Stockholders' equity	$2.36B
Cash & equivalents	$2.76B
Shares outstanding	336.29M
EPS (basic)	$3.57
EPS (diluted)	$3.56
P/E ratio (TTM)	42.51

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date: 2026-05-06
Latest period end: 2026-03-31
Filing lag: 10 days
Missing metrics: 3(gross_profit, dividends_paid, inventory)

Phase 3c — composite is the 8-pillar weighted score over quality, value, growth, momentum, health, profitability, technical, and risk. Sentiment + ML pillars land in Phases 5-6; until then their weight redistributes pro-rata. Fair price is the median of 6 valuation methods (Graham, P/E / P/B / EV-EBITDA multiples, RIM, DCF) with outliers above 5× current price excluded from the max. Risk-overlay flags annotate only — they suppress the entered-top-5 badge but do not modify the composite.