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#836USNASDAQ

AMZN

Amazon

$258.90USD

Data as of 2026-09-05

Fair value$112.54
Target$216.16
Loss chance65%Moderate-high

Company attributes

SizeMega cap
SectorConsumer Discretionary
Dividend—
TypeCommon stock

Price

Interactive 5-year price history chart for AMZN. Latest close $258.90.

Loading price history…

Pillar breakdown

0–100 percentile rank against the current universe (sector-relative for Quality / Value / Growth / Profitability)

Consumer Discretionary median (n=194)
  • Quality
    Profit margins & asset efficiency
    51
    Average
    Consumer Discretionary median (n=194) 47
  • Value
    Price vs fundamentals
    25
    Weak
    Consumer Discretionary median (n=194) 51
  • Growth
    Revenue & earnings trajectory
    65
    Strong
    Consumer Discretionary median (n=194) 49
  • Momentum
    Recent price strength
    63
    Strong
    Consumer Discretionary median (n=194) 44
  • Health
    Balance sheet & solvency
    48
    Average
    Consumer Discretionary median (n=194) 44
  • Profitability
    ROE, ROA, ROIC
    62
    Strong
    Consumer Discretionary median (n=194) 51
  • Technical
    Trend & volatility signals
    55
    Strong
    Consumer Discretionary median (n=194) 45
  • Risk
    Volatility & drawdown profile
    48
    Average
    Consumer Discretionary median (n=194) 37
025405570100
Exceptional (70+)Strong (55–70)Average (40–55)Weak (25–40)Poor (<25)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Risk Summary

Low
Manipulation index
8/100
Composite penalty: −0.80 pts (informational; rank uses raw composite)
Fired components (2)
  • Accruals momentum (Δ TATA > 0.05 over 3y)[accruals_momentum_high]
  • Beneish M-score warning band[beneish_high]

Rolls up Phase 4.5 earnings-manipulation defenses (Sloan · Beneish · Dechow · REM · restatement · late-filing · earnings- quality time-series) into a single 0-100 risk index. The soft composite penalty (max 10 pts) is informational only — the ranking uses the raw composite score per project Rule 16.

Fair price check

6 different valuation methods each estimate what AMZN should be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Heavily overvalued
Models suggest AMZN is far above estimated fair value
Today's price
$258.90
Median fair price
$112.54
-57% vs today's price
Of 5 methods:5 say pricey(1 outlier excluded)
  • P/E multiplesOvervalued
    thinks it's expensive — estimates $216.16, about 17% below today
  • EV/EBITDAOvervalued
    thinks it's expensive — estimates $160.71, about 38% below today
  • P/B multiplesOvervalued
    thinks it's expensive — estimates $150.06, about 42% below today
  • Graham (defensive)Overvalued
    thinks it's expensive — estimates $75.03, about 71% below today
  • Residual IncomeOvervalued
    thinks it's expensive — estimates $69.00, about 73% below today
  • DCF (2-stage)Outlier
    estimate looks unreliable — estimates $4.82 — likely unreliable

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair
$112.54
Margin of safety(vs fair value)
< −99%
Max (ex-outliers)
$216.16
Tangible BVPS
$48.11
  • Extreme DCF estimate
  • Beneish M-score (warning band)
  • Accruals momentum

Median of all applicable methods (current price $258.90). Per-method estimates + each method’s cheap/fair/pricey read are in the Fair price check above. Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Defense layer. Flags mark elevated risk, never confirmed fraud. This model cannot catch every manipulation and decays after publication — weigh it against its stated error rates.

Supporting dataRaw fundamentals & data-quality provenance behind the scores above

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

MetricValue
Market cap$2.79T
Revenue (TTM)$775.68B
Net income (TTM)$135.28B
Operating cash flow (TTM)$161.40B
CapEx (TTM)$7.42B
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx$153.98B
Total assets$1.10T
Total liabilitiesN/A
Stockholders' equity$551.62B
Cash & equivalents$78.21B
Shares outstanding10.79B
EPS (basic)$12.54
EPS (diluted)$12.54
P/E ratio (TTM)20.64

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date
2026-07-31
Latest period end
2026-07-22
Filing lag
36 days
Missing metrics
4(total_liabilities, gross_profit, research_and_development, dividends_paid)

Composite is the 8-pillar weighted score over quality, value, growth, momentum, health, profitability, technical, and risk. Sentiment + ML pillars are reserved for a later phase; until then their weight redistributes pro-rata. Fair price is the median of 6 valuation methods (Graham, P/E / P/B / EV-EBITDA multiples, RIM, DCF) with outliers above 5× current price excluded from the max. Risk-overlay flags annotate only — they suppress the entered-top-5 badge but do not modify the composite.