#48Information Technology· Semiconductor Materials & Equipment

AMATHold

Applied Materials

$436.62USD

Composite Score62.6Strong

<−99

Margin of safety<−99%Expensive

Fair value$174.35

Target$346.75

Loss chance56%

Price (1y)

Loading price history…

Fair price check

6 different valuation methods each estimate what AMAT should be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Heavily overvalued

Models suggest AMAT is far above estimated fair value

Today's price

$436.62

Median fair price

$174.35

-60% vs today

Of 4 methods:4 say pricey(2 outliers excluded)

P/E multiplesOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $346.75, about 21% below today
P/B multiplesOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $265.85, about 39% below today
EV/EBITDAOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $253.66, about 42% below today
DCF (2-stage)Overvalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $95.05, about 78% below today
Residual IncomeOutlier
estimate looks unreliable — estimates $69.67 — likely unreliable
Graham (defensive)Outlier
estimate looks unreliable — estimates $65.33 — likely unreliable

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair

$174.35

Margin of safety

< −99%

Max (ex-outliers)

$346.75

Tangible BVPS

$22.42

Method	Value
Graham (defensive)	$65.33
P/E multiples(vs sector peers)	$346.75
P/B multiples(vs sector peers)	$265.85
EV/EBITDA(vs sector peers)	$253.66
Residual Income	$69.67
DCF (2-stage)	$95.05

extreme graham estimate
extreme rim estimate

Median of all applicable methods (current price $436.62). Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Pillar breakdown

8 dimensions, each scored 0–100 against the universe

Information Technology median (n=73)

Quality
Profit margins & asset efficiency
71
Strong
Value
Price vs fundamentals
32
Weak
Growth
Revenue & earnings trajectory
51
Decent
Momentum
Recent price strength
93
Strong
Health
Balance sheet & solvency
89
Strong
Profitability
ROE, ROA, ROIC
66
Decent
Technical
Trend & volatility signals
60
Decent
Risk
Volatility & drawdown profile
52
Decent

0305070100

Strong (70+)Decent (50–70)Weak (30–50)Poor (<30)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

Metric	Value
Market cap	$346.51B
Revenue (TTM)	$28.21B
Net income (TTM)	$7.84B
Operating cash flow (TTM)	$8.72B
CapEx (TTM)	$2.52B
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx	$6.19B
Total assets	$37.64B
Total liabilities	$15.93B
Stockholders' equity	$21.72B
Cash & equivalents	$7.22B
Shares outstanding	793.61M
EPS (basic)	$2.55
EPS (diluted)	$2.54
P/E ratio (TTM)	44.20

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date: 2026-02-19
Latest period end: 2026-01-25
Filing lag: 86 days
Missing metrics: none

Phase 3c — composite is the 8-pillar weighted score over quality, value, growth, momentum, health, profitability, technical, and risk. Sentiment + ML pillars land in Phases 5-6; until then their weight redistributes pro-rata. Fair price is the median of 6 valuation methods (Graham, P/E / P/B / EV-EBITDA multiples, RIM, DCF) with outliers above 5× current price excluded from the max. Risk-overlay flags annotate only — they suppress the entered-top-5 badge but do not modify the composite.