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#7Financials· Property & Casualty Insurance

ALLStrong Buy

Allstate

$217.37USD
68
Composite Score68.0Strong
+5
Margin of safety+5%Fair value
Fair value$228.09
Target$651.13
Loss chance29%

Price (1y)

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Fair price check

4 different valuation methods each estimate what ALL should be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Near fair value
Models suggest ALL is priced roughly in line
Today's price
$217.37
Median fair price
$228.09
+5% vs today
Of 4 methods:1 say cheap2 say fair1 say pricey
  • P/E multiplesUndervalued
    thinks it's a bargain — estimates $651.13, about 200% above today
  • P/B multiplesFair
    thinks it's fairly priced — estimates $246.85, about 14% above today
  • Graham (defensive)Fair
    thinks it's fairly priced — estimates $209.34, about 4% below today
  • Residual IncomeOvervalued
    thinks it's expensive — estimates $154.78, about 29% below today

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair
$228.09
Margin of safety
+4.7%
Max (ex-outliers)
$651.13
Tangible BVPS
$108.50
MethodValue
Graham (defensive)$209.34
P/E multiples(vs sector peers)$651.13
P/B multiples(vs sector peers)$246.85
EV/EBITDAskipped
Residual Income$154.78
DCF (2-stage)skipped

Median of all applicable methods (current price $217.37). Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Pillar breakdown

8 dimensions, each scored 0–100 against the universe

Financials median (n=75)
  • Quality
    Profit margins & asset efficiency
    70
    Strong
  • Value
    Price vs fundamentals
    74
    Strong
  • Growth
    Revenue & earnings trajectory
    73
    Strong
  • Momentum
    Recent price strength
    66
    Decent
  • Health
    Balance sheet & solvency
    56
    Decent
  • Profitability
    ROE, ROA, ROIC
    55
    Decent
  • Technical
    Trend & volatility signals
    61
    Decent
  • Risk
    Volatility & drawdown profile
    74
    Strong
0305070100
Strong (70+)Decent (50–70)Weak (30–50)Poor (<30)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

MetricValue
Market cap$55.96B
Revenue (TTM)$68.17B
Net income (TTM)$12.14B
Operating cash flow (TTM)$11.71B
CapEx (TTM)$269.00M
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx$11.44B
Total assets$123.97B
Total liabilities$92.39B
Stockholders' equity$31.61B
Cash & equivalents$697.00M
Shares outstanding257.42M
EPS (basic)$9.36
EPS (diluted)$9.25
P/E ratio (TTM)4.61

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date
2026-04-29
Latest period end
2026-04-13
Filing lag
17 days
Missing metrics
13(gross_profit, operating_income, cost_of_revenue, research_and_development, sga_expense, depreciation_and_amortization, income_before_tax, current_assets, current_liabilities, inventory, accounts_receivable, accounts_payable, ebitda)

Phase 3c — composite is the 8-pillar weighted score over quality, value, growth, momentum, health, profitability, technical, and risk. Sentiment + ML pillars land in Phases 5-6; until then their weight redistributes pro-rata. Fair price is the median of 6 valuation methods (Graham, P/E / P/B / EV-EBITDA multiples, RIM, DCF) with outliers above 5× current price excluded from the max. Risk-overlay flags annotate only — they suppress the entered-top-5 badge but do not modify the composite.