#514USNYSE

AFL

Aflac

$118.36USD

Data as of 2026-09-05

Composite Score54.3Average

−4

Margin of safety−4%Fair value

Fair value$113.40

Target$154.63

Loss chance42%Neutral

SizeLarge cap

SectorFinancials

Dividend2.06%

TypeCommon stock

Price

Pillar breakdown

0–100 percentile rank against the current universe (sector-relative for Quality / Value / Growth / Profitability)

Financials median (n=257)

Quality
Profit margins & asset efficiency
55
Strong
Financials median (n=257) 50
Value
Price vs fundamentals
52
Average
Financials median (n=257) 52
Growth
Revenue & earnings trajectory
38
Weak
Financials median (n=257) 50
Momentum
Recent price strength
57
Strong
Financials median (n=257) 63
Health
Balance sheet & solvency
55
Strong
Financials median (n=257) 55
Profitability
ROE, ROA, ROIC
54
Average
Financials median (n=257) 51
Technical
Trend & volatility signals
70
Exceptional
Financials median (n=257) 56
Risk
Volatility & drawdown profile
84
Exceptional
Financials median (n=257) 63

025405570100

Exceptional (70+)Strong (55–70)Average (40–55)Weak (25–40)Poor (<25)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Risk Summary

1 active

Rank gates

Sloan accruals — top decile[sloan_accruals_top_decile]Within-sector top decile of accruals / assets (Sloan 1996).

These flags keep the raw composite rank (project Rule 16) but forfeit the entered_top5 badge. Two of them — altman_distress and data_quality_input_corruption — additionally force a cautious recommendation; the others act as Top-5 disqualifiers without dictating the buy/hold/sell label on their own.

Manipulation index

Moderate

20/100

Composite penalty: −2.00 pts (informational; rank uses raw composite)

Driven entirely by the rank-gate flag(s) above — no additional annotate-only components fired.

Rolls up Phase 4.5 earnings-manipulation defenses (Sloan · Beneish · Dechow · REM · restatement · late-filing · earnings- quality time-series) into a single 0-100 risk index. The soft composite penalty (max 10 pts) is informational only — the ranking uses the raw composite score per project Rule 16.

Fair price check

4 different valuation methods each estimate what AFL should be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Near fair value

Models suggest AFL is priced roughly in line

Today's price

$118.36

Median fair price

$113.40

-4% vs today's price

Of 4 methods:1 say cheap1 say fair2 say pricey

P/E multiplesUndervalued
thinks it's a bargain — estimates $154.63, about 31% above today
P/B multiplesFair
thinks it's fairly priced — estimates $122.43, about 3% above today
Graham (defensive)Overvalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $104.37, about 12% below today
Residual IncomeOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $91.73, about 22% below today

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair: $113.40
Margin of safety(vs fair value): -4.4%
Max (ex-outliers): $154.63
Tangible BVPS: $59.94

Median of all applicable methods (current price $118.36). Per-method estimates + each method’s cheap/fair/pricey read are in the Fair price check above. Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Defense layer. Flags mark elevated risk, never confirmed fraud. This model cannot catch every manipulation and decays after publication — weigh it against its stated error rates.

Supporting dataRaw fundamentals & data-quality provenance behind the scores above

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

Metric	Value
Market cap	$59.34B
Revenue (TTM)	$18.07B
Net income (TTM)	$4.86B
Operating cash flow (TTM)	$2.65B
CapEx (TTM)	N/A
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx	N/A
Total assets	$115.96B
Total liabilities	$85.65B
Stockholders' equity	$30.31B
Cash & equivalents	$6.12B
Shares outstanding	501.34M
EPS (basic)	$9.70
EPS (diluted)	$9.70
P/E ratio (TTM)	12.20

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date: 2026-08-07
Latest period end: 2026-07-28
Filing lag: 29 days
Missing metrics: 16(capex, free_cash_flow, gross_profit, operating_income, cost_of_revenue, research_and_development, depreciation_and_amortization, current_assets, current_liabilities, inventory, accounts_receivable, accounts_payable, long_term_debt, short_term_debt, ebitda, intangibles_net)