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#15Financials· Property & Casualty Insurance

ACGLStrong Buy

Arch Capital Group

$93.98USD
67
Composite Score66.8Strong
+30
Margin of safety+30%Undervalued
Fair value$134.83
Target$271.87
Loss chance21%

Price (1y)

Loading price history…

Fair price check

4 different valuation methods each estimate what ACGL should be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Looks undervalued
Models suggest ACGL is trading below fair value
Today's price
$93.98
Median fair price
$134.83
+43% vs today
Of 4 methods:3 say cheap1 say fair
  • P/E multiplesUndervalued
    thinks it's a bargain — estimates $271.87, about 189% above today
  • P/B multiplesUndervalued
    thinks it's a bargain — estimates $139.18, about 48% above today
  • Graham (defensive)Undervalued
    thinks it's a bargain — estimates $130.47, about 39% above today
  • Residual IncomeFair
    thinks it's fairly priced — estimates $106.37, about 13% above today

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair
$134.83
Margin of safety
+30.3%
Max (ex-outliers)
$271.87
Tangible BVPS
$65.96
MethodValue
Graham (defensive)$130.47
P/E multiples(vs sector peers)$271.87
P/B multiples(vs sector peers)$139.18
EV/EBITDAskipped
Residual Income$106.37
DCF (2-stage)skipped

Median of all applicable methods (current price $93.98). Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Pillar breakdown

8 dimensions, each scored 0–100 against the universe

Financials median (n=75)
  • Quality
    Profit margins & asset efficiency
    68
    Decent
  • Value
    Price vs fundamentals
    73
    Strong
  • Growth
    Revenue & earnings trajectory
    82
    Strong
  • Momentum
    Recent price strength
    54
    Decent
  • Health
    Balance sheet & solvency
    51
    Decent
  • Profitability
    ROE, ROA, ROIC
    62
    Decent
  • Technical
    Trend & volatility signals
    65
    Decent
  • Risk
    Volatility & drawdown profile
    67
    Decent
0305070100
Strong (70+)Decent (50–70)Weak (30–50)Poor (<30)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

MetricValue
Market cap$32.84B
Revenue (TTM)$19.78B
Net income (TTM)$6.88B
Operating cash flow (TTM)$5.90B
CapEx (TTM)$43.00M
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx$5.86B
Total assets$81.45B
Total liabilities$57.26B
Stockholders' equity$24.19B
Cash & equivalents$914.00M
Shares outstanding349.39M
EPS (basic)$2.94
EPS (diluted)$2.88
P/E ratio (TTM)4.77

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date
2026-05-05
Latest period end
2026-05-01
Filing lag
11 days
Missing metrics
15(gross_profit, operating_income, cost_of_revenue, research_and_development, depreciation_and_amortization, dividends_paid, current_assets, current_liabilities, inventory, accounts_receivable, accounts_payable, long_term_debt, short_term_debt, ebitda, property_plant_equipment)

Phase 3c — composite is the 8-pillar weighted score over quality, value, growth, momentum, health, profitability, technical, and risk. Sentiment + ML pillars land in Phases 5-6; until then their weight redistributes pro-rata. Fair price is the median of 6 valuation methods (Graham, P/E / P/B / EV-EBITDA multiples, RIM, DCF) with outliers above 5× current price excluded from the max. Risk-overlay flags annotate only — they suppress the entered-top-5 badge but do not modify the composite.