#27Information Technology· Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

AAPLHold

Apple Inc.

$300.23USD

Composite Score65.0Strong

−96

Margin of safety−96%Expensive

Fair value$153.51

Target$358.21

Loss chance53%

Price (1y)

Loading price history…

Fair price check

6 different valuation methods each estimate what AAPL should be worth, then we compare to today's price.

Looks overvalued

Models suggest AAPL is trading above fair value

Today's price

$300.23

Median fair price

$153.51

-49% vs today

Of 5 methods:2 say fair3 say pricey(1 outlier excluded)

Residual IncomeFair
thinks it's fairly priced — estimates $358.21, about 19% above today
P/E multiplesFair
thinks it's fairly priced — estimates $316.67, about 5% above today
EV/EBITDAOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $222.47, about 26% below today
DCF (2-stage)Overvalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $84.56, about 72% below today
P/B multiplesOvervalued
thinks it's expensive — estimates $70.44, about 77% below today
Graham (defensive)Outlier
estimate looks unreliable — estimates $27.41 — likely unreliable

How to read this: “Cheap” = method's fair price is at least 20% above today. “Fair” = within ±10–20%. “Pricey” = at least 10% below today. Outliers (values more than 5× or less than 0.2× today's price) are excluded.

Fair price ensemble

Median fair

$153.51

Margin of safety

-95.6%

Max (ex-outliers)

$358.21

Tangible BVPS

$5.09

Method	Value
Graham (defensive)	$27.41
P/E multiples(vs sector peers)	$316.67
P/B multiples(vs sector peers)	$70.44
EV/EBITDA(vs sub industry peers)	$222.47
Residual Income	$358.21
DCF (2-stage)	$84.56

extreme graham estimate

Median of all applicable methods (current price $300.23). Outliers above 5× or below 0.2× current price are excluded from the max but kept in the median. See methodology for the 6-method ensemble + 7 defenses.

Pillar breakdown

8 dimensions, each scored 0–100 against the universe

Information Technology median (n=73)

Quality
Profit margins & asset efficiency
92
Strong
Value
Price vs fundamentals
38
Weak
Growth
Revenue & earnings trajectory
50
Decent
Momentum
Recent price strength
69
Decent
Health
Balance sheet & solvency
52
Decent
Profitability
ROE, ROA, ROIC
77
Strong
Technical
Trend & volatility signals
68
Decent
Risk
Volatility & drawdown profile
70
Strong

0305070100

Strong (70+)Decent (50–70)Weak (30–50)Poor (<30)

Pillars not shown: Sentiment, ML (Phase 5+).

Raw fundamentals (SEC EDGAR)

Metric	Value
Market cap	$4.41T
Revenue (TTM)	$451.44B
Net income (TTM)	$122.58B
Operating cash flow (TTM)	$140.22B
CapEx (TTM)	$11.05B
Free cash flow (TTM)CFO − CapEx	$129.17B
Total assets	$371.08B
Total liabilities	$264.59B
Stockholders' equity	$106.49B
Cash & equivalents	$45.57B
Shares outstanding	14.69B
EPS (basic)	$4.87
EPS (diluted)	$4.85
P/E ratio (TTM)	35.97

TTM = trailing twelve months. Balance sheet items are point-in-time (latest filing).

Data quality

Latest filed date: 2026-05-01
Latest period end: 2026-04-17
Filing lag: 15 days
Missing metrics: 1(interest_expense)

Phase 3c — composite is the 8-pillar weighted score over quality, value, growth, momentum, health, profitability, technical, and risk. Sentiment + ML pillars land in Phases 5-6; until then their weight redistributes pro-rata. Fair price is the median of 6 valuation methods (Graham, P/E / P/B / EV-EBITDA multiples, RIM, DCF) with outliers above 5× current price excluded from the max. Risk-overlay flags annotate only — they suppress the entered-top-5 badge but do not modify the composite.